BeursKlets.nl

@maarten, hij is tenminste bereid om z'n visie los te laten, en houdt niet vast aan een tunnelvisie, maar goed, toch heeft hij het nu al 2,5 jaar over de grote wave 3 down.

Mark Steert houdt nog wel vast aan dat idee, maar op veel beurzen is het volgens mij al een achterhaald verhaal.

Mchugh weet het ook niet meer. W3 laat nog ff op zich wachten. Nu w4 en dan nog een w5. De spiral calender voorspelt een draai rond de 13e feb en nog één rond de 22ste. We gaan het zien.

Feitelijk gaf de laatste update geen nieuw inzicht; topping proces 'slow and tedious' maar nog steeds geen bevestiging. Maar ik reken op Maarten dat hij de sell van Mchugh hier post als het zover is

Op verzoek van Andre:

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Tuesday Market Newsletter, issue no. 1761, January 31st, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Daily Market Report at the website):

Our Lifetime Platinum Membership Offer, which credits you for all past subscription payments ever made, is good through March 31st, 2012. Email us for the amount of credit you are entitled to.

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments        

There was not enough downside momentum to move our Purchasing Power key trading trend-finder indicator to a new sell signal Monday, January 30th. What this means is we still do not have confirmation that a new multi-week declining trend that has significance has started. The topping process is slow and tedious, but the longer it takes, the deeper the coming decline. The rising trends from October 4th and December 19th look old.

If you look at the chart at the top of page 24, we see that for the S&P 500 the time that waves x-down, a-up, and b-down took from early November to December 19th is about the same as the time wave c-up has taken from December 19th to now. Also, the price move for wave x-down in November is about the same as the price move for wave c-up from December 19th. Further, on Monday and Tuesday this week, the S&P 500 fell out of the rising trend-channel from December 19th through January 27th, falling below the bottom boundary. These simultaneous convergence points could suggest we are at another high risk place for the start of a significant decline. January 28th (Saturday) was the most recent Bradley model scheduled turn date. So far Thursday is a high for the rise from October 4th. However, it could also be argued that the Bradley model turn is Monday's low, so no clear guidance comes from that cycle turn indicator tonight, unfortunately.

There was a very small change in the McClellan Oscillator Tuesday, January 31st, suggesting a large price move is coming over the next few days.  

DJIA PPI -84.43 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 76.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 63.89 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day 66.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day 36.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 30.00
Secondary Trend Indicator +1 to +39 On a Buy
Demand Power -1 to 395 Supply Pressure flat at 349 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator +65.16
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4,335.48
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 23.60 On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 607.2 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 203 New Lows 12     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments    
    

The NDX Purchasing Power, and 30 and 14 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remains on a buy signal Tuesday, January 31st. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Tuesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 25 and 26, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 90 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 90 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Thursday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Tuesday's NDX Demand Power fell 1 point to 409, while Selling Pressure was flat at 385, telling us the advance was weak.  

NDX PPI +16.63 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 89.00 Slow 89.80 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 74.00 Slow 78.60 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +14.0 On a Buy

RUT PPI +52.72 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +393.10 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments    

We got a new buy signal January 25th, 2012 in our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator that remains in play Tuesday. Mining Stocks and Precious Metals rallied sharply last week off the Fed's announcement it is keeping rates low for at least 2 more years, which amounts to a lot more currency printing to accomplish that. The Fed has to buy U.S. Treasury markets with printed cash to accomplish this, which is great for precious metals.

Gold's rally last week rose slightly above the upper boundary of the declining trend-line, the upper boundary of the Declining Bullish Wedge pattern we show on page 27. If this pattern is in fact occurring, Gold should top here and drop 100 points or more over the next month, to be followed by the mother of all rallies. With Gold near its short-term upside target, with the Daily Full Stochastics very overbought, this next 100 point +/- decline would be wave {e} down to complete the pattern. Then a powerful mega-rally will follow, probably starting in the March/April timeframe. If Gold busts out decisively above this upper boundary resistance line, it means wave 5-up is starting now, a mega-rally. Gold and Silver both generated Bollinger Band Sell Signals in the past few days. Once the coming short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold.
    
There is an alternate possibility that wave 4 down is over, that the declining wedges (which require five subwaves) is coincidence, and that wave 4-down was an {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down which is finished. If so, the HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here. A breakout above what we have drawn as the upper declining boundary of the Wedges on pages 27 and 28 would confirm wave 5-up is underway.     

HUI PPI +278.96 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 95.00 Slow 65.00 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen, de weekend-update van McHugh:

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Weekend U.S. Market Newsletter, issue no. 1759, and International Market Report, issue no. 1376, January 27th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Weekend button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Daily Market Report at the website):

Our 10 Months for $169 Special ends tomorrow, Sunday, January 29th at the Renew Today or Subscribe Today button at http:…..rindex.com

Today's Market Comments        

The best confirmation that a significant new trend has started is when our key trend-finder indicators shown on page 2 generate new signals in unison in a similar timeframe. For confirmation that a new short-term (2 to 4 week) trend has started that is tradable, we want to see the Purchasing Power Indicator and the 30 and 14 Day stochastic indicators all agree on a new trend direction. That has not happened yet. Two of the three are now on sell signals, but the third, and most important, the Purchasing Power Indicator, remains on a buy signal. This is what we define as a sideways signal, meaning stocks are either fooling around with a sideways back and forth pattern which is typically an unproductive trading environment, or a new trend turn is in process, but not yet complete. Certainly, the age of the trends from October 4th and December 19th look old, but confirmation of new tradable downtrends has not yet occurred as of this weekend. Waiting for high probability new trend signals is frustrating when they take a long time, but it is best to wait. Once it comes, trading has less risk than trading before the unison sell signals arrive.

There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Friday, suggesting a large price move is likely early next week. Next week has some potentially strong news events, the Euro/Greece debt resolution, and the Facebook IPO. End of month/beginning of month often has a very short-term bullish bias. Friday was another Bradley model minor turn date. Friday's price action was accompanied by mild downside internals. The next significant downtrend should be powerful, fast and furious. The lackluster decline last week cannot be described as powerful, fast or furious, so we do not believe the next significant downtrend has started.

DJIA PPI -83.74 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 83.33 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 74.44 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day 73.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day 56.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 30.00
Secondary Trend Indicator +45 On a Buy
Demand Power -1 to 402 Supply Pressure -1 to 346 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator +141.73
McClellan Osc Summation Index +4204.78
Plunge Protection Team Indicator +24.68 On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +613.8 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 174 New Lows 9     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The NDX Purchasing Power, and 30 and 14 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remains on a buy signal Friday, January 27th. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Friday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 24 and 25, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 90 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 90 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Thursday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Friday's NDX Demand Power rose 1 point to 412, while Selling Pressure fell 1 point to 383, telling us the advance was weak.  

NDX PPI +16.60 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 90.00 Slow 90.40 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 79.00 Slow 82.60 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +16.6 On a Buy

RUT PPI + 53.95 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 389.90 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments
        
We got a new buy signal Wednesday in our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator that remains in play this weekend. Mining Stocks and Precious Metals rallied sharply this week off the Fed's announcement it is keeping rates low for at least 2 more years, which amounts to a lot more currency printing to accomplish that. The Fed has to buy U.S. Treasury markets with printed cash to accomplish this, which is great for precious metals.

Gold's rally this week rose slightly above the upper boundary of the declining trend-line, the upper boundary of the Declining Bullish Wedge pattern we show on page 33. If this pattern is in fact occurring, Gold should top here and drop 100 points or more over the next month, to be followed by the mother of all rallies. With Gold near its short-term upside target, with the Daily Full Stochastics very overbought, this next 100 point +/- decline would be wave {e} down to complete the pattern. Then a powerful mega-rally will follow, probably starting in the March/April timeframe. If Gold busts out decisively above this upper boundary resistance line, it means wave 5-up is starting now, a mega-rally. Gold and Silver both generated Bollinger Band Sell Signal Set-ups Thursday, closing above the upper boundary of the 2 standard deviation BB. A close back below the upper boundary will trigger new BB sell signals. Once the coming short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold.
    
There is an alternate possibility that wave 4 down is over, that the declining wedges (which require five subwaves) is coincidence, and that wave 4-down was an {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down which is finished. If so, the HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here. A breakout above what we have drawn as the upper declining boundary of the Wedges would confirm wave 5-up is underway. With a new buy signal in the HUI.     

HUI PPI +280.19 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 100.00 Slow 54.44 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Nog geen definitieve draai in de VIX, maar toch de nieuwe update :

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Tuesday Market Newsletter, issue no. 1756, January 24th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Daily Market Report at the website):

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments
        
Stocks remain in a topping formation, a slow topping formation, as nearly all of our indicators remain on buy signals. Markets are frozen, waiting for news this week from the State of the Union address, the Fed meeting, and European negotiations over Greece's debt. Rally trends from December 19th and October 4th are old, but until we get new sell signals, we cannot be confident the next significant decline has started. Strong downside momentum would trigger new sell signals.

The Bullish Percent for the NYSE is getting pretty frothy, close to 70 percent, another indication stocks are putting in a top.

U.S. Bonds are bottoming. This would make sense if stocks are about to fall, as that would likely move money into U.S. Bonds.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator generated a new buy signal Tuesday, suggesting the PPT is likely to work to support markets at this time. See an interesting chart on page 20 tying our PPT indicator with Solar Storms.    

The VIX is on a new Bollinger Band  buy Signal from Monday, while the Industrials are on a new Bollinger Band sell signal. This supports the view that Stocks are putting in a top. Stocks are in one of the most overbought markets in the past five years. But overbought itself does not cause declines. It creates set-up scenarios. The trade trigger comes when the trading signals (page 2) turn to sells, after sensing strong downside momentum. That moment has not arrived yet. When it does, it may make sense for us to add more leveraged short ETF funds to our Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment.  
    
Prices remain near the intersection of three major trend-lines from early 2011, one rising, one sideways, the other declining. See chart on page 22. In all but one instance when the Industrials hit these lines, a significant trend turn started, increasing the odds that a major trend reversal down is imminent.

DJIA PPI -85.28 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow 92.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 76.67 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day 83.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day 66.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 50.00
Secondary Trend Indicator +45 On a Buy
Demand Power -1 to 400 Supply Pressure flat at 348 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator + 126.31
McClellan Osc Summation Index +3756.77
Plunge Protection Team Indicator +20.46  On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +635.6 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 85 New Lows 10     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The NDX Purchasing Power trend trading indicator signal remains on a buy signal Tuesday, January 24th. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Tuesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 26 and 27, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 95 extreme overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are around the overbought 90 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Tuesday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Tuesday's NDX Demand Power rose 1 point to 408, while Selling Pressure fell 1 point to 382, telling us neither side had a strong interest in taking a position Tuesday.  

NDX PPI +11.29 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 84.00 Slow 85.40 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.00 Slow 79.60 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +25.8 On a Buy

RUT PPI +51.45 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +439.90 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments        

Gold has started a relatively small decline, maybe 50 points, possible as much as 100 points, but the big trade opportunity will come once this corrective decline has completed. That will represent the bottom of the declining wedge we show on page 28. Once that low is in place, a terrific trading opportunity will come, as a mega rally unfolds. We will trade that rally hard. Until then, we will hold off shorting until evidence builds that a meaningful enough decline is starting with strong downside momentum. The great rally trade will likely arrive in the March / April timeframe. Silver triggered a Bollinger Band Sell Signal Tuesday, closing back below its Upper 2 standard deviation BB.

The HUI's short-term rally trend is over, as its key short-term trend indicator, its Purchasing Power Indicator, generated a new Sell Signal January 19th.

The Bullish percent index remains very low at 20.69 percent, and the Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought, at 21/24 Fast/Slow for the HUI, 48/40 Fast/Slow for Gold, supportive of continued upside price movement, even after the mild current short-term corrective decline/sideways move finishes. Once the short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold.

HUI PPI +263.30 On a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.00 Slow 43.33 On a Buy

Goeien avond, de weekend-update van McHugh:

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Expanded Weekend U.S. Market Newsletter, issue no. 1754, January 20th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button. Also available is the Weekend International Market Report.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Daily Market Report at the website):

Our 10 Months for $169 Subscription Renewal Special is available at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today buttons at http:…..ndex.com  This offer ends Sunday, January 22nd, 2012 Midnight EDT.

Today's Market Comments        

Our trading indicators shown on page 2 remain on Buy signals this weekend. We believe the rally trend in stocks is old in most time horizons. The big news Friday, January 20th, 2012 is that the VIX has closed below the bottom 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band, which is a set up for a new buy signal in the VIX. Once the VIX closes back above the bottom BB, a new buy signal will be generated. We have been expecting the VIX to bottom given the completing Declining Bullish Wedge. That Wedge looks very close to completion this weekend, coming at the same time the VIX buy signal set up is at hand. The last time the VIX had a buy signal was late April 2011, which was soon followed by the major top on May 2nd, 2011, which led to a five month decline, including the August stock market crash. A buy signal in the VIX means stocks are about to decline. The size of the Declining Bullish Wedge suggests the VIX is about to rise sharply, meaning stocks are at great risk of falling hard. Also Friday, in conjunction with this VIX development, both the Industrials and Silver got a sell signal set up as they closed above their respective upper 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands Friday. Once they close back below the upper BB, they will generate new sell signals. Experience tells us these BB signals are generally very good at predicting significant trend turns. See charts on page 23. The Russell 2000 generated a new Bollinger Band Sell signal Friday, as it moved back and closed below its upper 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band after closing above it Thursday, January 19th.

The Fed will announce it latest game plan to keep the cash flowing to Wall Street this coming Wednesday. Will QE3 be announced? If so, that could be very Bullish for precious metals, and support our view that metals will be rising sharply by mid-2012.

There was a relatively small change in the McClellan Oscillator again Friday, suggesting a large price move in stocks is likely over the coming day or two. The wave c-up rally from December 19th is at the exact price length this weekend as wave "a" covered; wave a = wave c in terms of price. See chart on page 27.                 

Prices remain near the intersection of two major trend-lines from early 2011, one rising, the other declining. See chart on page 22. In all but one instance when the Industrials hit these lines, a significant trend turn started, increasing the odds that a major trend reversal down is imminent.

DJIA PPI -85.20 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 96.67 Slow 92.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow 75.56 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day 96.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day 96.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 90.00
Secondary Trend Indicator +49 On a Buy
Demand Power -1 to 402 Supply Pressure + 2 to 350 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator +159.24
McClellan Osc Summation Index +3482.02
Plunge Protection Team Indicator +17.54 On a Sell
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +620.1 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 126 New Lows 14     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The NDX Purchasing Power trend trading indicator signal remains on a buy signal Friday, January 20th. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Tuesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 28 and 29, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 97 extreme overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are around the overbought 90 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Friday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Friday's NDX Demand Power rose 1 point to 408, while Selling Pressure rose 4 points to 381, telling us Friday's decline was mild.  

NDX PPI + 11.49 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 79.00 Slow 72.20 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 75.00 Slow 70.20 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 25.8 On a Buy

RUT PPI +50.68 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 355.20 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments        

The HUI's short-term rally trend is over, as its key short-term trend indicator, its Purchasing Power Indicator, generated a new Sell Signal Thursday. The  Bullish trend's upside targets near the upper boundary of possible Bullish Wedge patterns we show on page 43 have not been achieved before a sell signal was generated, suggesting this target will not be met until a new buy signal occurs. The 30 Day Stochastic remains on a buy signal Friday, and it remains on a buy as the corrective short-term decline unfolds. This means the decline should be shallow, to be followed by a breakout higher at the conclusion of the Declining Bullish Wedge.

The Bullish percent index remains very low at 17.24 percent, and the Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought, at 26/24 Fast/Slow for the HUI, 42/32 Fast/Slow for Gold, supportive of continued upside price movement, even after the mild current short-term corrective decline/sideways move finishes. Once the short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold.

HUI PPI +263.85 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.00 Slow 42.78 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede middag, de weekend-update van McHugh:

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Expanded Weekend U.S. Market Newsletter, issue no. 1750, January 13th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Weekend Market Report at the website):

Renewal Special: 10 Months for $179, at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com

Today's Market Comments    
    
We did not get new Sell Signals in our key trend-finder indicators Friday January 13th, as summarized on page 2. But it is possible that wave 3-down started Friday. If it did not, it very well could early this week. Once we get those new Sell signals, we will have confirmation of the new coming trend down. Wave 2-up started on October 4th, and is correcting the five month decline from May 2011 through October 2011. There is terrific time symmetry for the wave 3 decline to start right now +/- a day or two. The time for waves a-up, and b-down that started on November 28th and ran through December 19th, is precisely the time wave c-up from December 19th, 2011 has taken so far for the final zigzag for wave 2-up. This means c-up could be finished, or finished within a day or so, and wave 2-up is likely to end now, with a major wave 3-decline imminent. Wave c-up's point gain would equal wave a's at an upside target of 1,312 in the S&P 500, but it does not have to reach that level for c-up to be complete. At the very least, wave 2-up is very old. The PPT is likely to stand aside at this time, as the PPT Indicator remains on a sell signal from January 10th.

And as mentioned Wednesday, the chart on page 23 shows that prices have reached the precise intersection of two significant intermediate-term trend-lines. The first is a declining trend-line connecting the May 2011 and July 2011 tops. Right here, right now, is the third touch point on that declining trend-line. The second trend-line is a rising line that is derived from the March and June 2011 bottoms, and the October 2011 top. Right here, right now, is the fourth touch point on that rising trend-line. This is a terrific high probability spot for a significant trend turn down. The point is, every time stocks have hit these trend-lines, either trend-line, there has been a significant trend-turn with the exception of August 2011 when the stock market was in the middle of a crash. These two trend-lines have formed a huge triangle. Prices sit right now at the intersection. Stereophonic resistance. A significant trend-turn should therefore be imminent.

DJIA PPI -91.98 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast  90.90 Slow 90.90 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 73.89 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day 90.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day 53.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day 43.33
Secondary Trend Indicator +33 On a Buy
Demand Power Down 6 to 388 Supply Pressure Up 4 to 356 A Buy
McClellan Oscillator + 81.22
McClellan Osc Summation Index +2897.67
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 0.83 On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 444.1 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 100 New Lows 25     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments    
    
The NDX Purchasing Power trend trading indicator signal remains on a buy signal Friday, but there was damage done to the 30 and 14 Day Stochastic Short-term trend indicators Friday, weak internals. This bears watching. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next major trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Friday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

The age of the NDX's rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old.

Friday's NDX Demand Power fell 3 points to 395, while Selling Pressure rose 2 points to 385, telling us Friday's decline was mild.

The Elliott Wave mapping suggests the NDX is putting in a major top, and it is possible wave iii down, could have started, which could take prices significantly lower in 2012.         

NDX PPI -3.52 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 61.00 Slow 66.40 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 58.00 Slow 67.80 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 5.8 On a Buy

RUT PPI + 45.78 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +132.00 On a Buy
 
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments    
            
The HUI's rally trend is maturing, but should have more upside left in it. The  Bullish trend still has upside targets near the upper boundary of possible Bullish Wedge patterns we show on page 43, the Bullish percent index remains very low at 17.24 percent, and the Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought, 25/21 Fast/Slow for the HUI, 30/25/Fast/Slow for Gold, supportive of continued upside price movement, even after a mild coming short-term corrective decline. The minimum upside target is the top of the declining trend-line of the possible triangle, 580ish in the HUI and 1,700ish in Gold. Once the short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally toward those upside targets.

The Elliott Wave mapping on pages 42 and 43 suggest wave fours down are either complete, and a large wave five up is about to start, or large degree wave fours down are forming declining bullish wedges, with the wave {d}-up rally underway. In fact wave {d} up is almost halfway complete, but after a small corrective decline, could see another 10 percent rally before topping. In either case a rally of some significance has started. We believe on a larger scale, the primary trend remains up for 2012.

HUI PPI 268.41 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 37.78 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

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De weekend-update van McHugh:

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest U.S. Weekend Market Forecast & Trading Report, issue no. 1745, January 6th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Weekend button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Weekend Market Report at the website):

Today's Market Comments        

Final results for our Platinum Trading Program for the 12 months of 2011 are now available on page 18. The total profits for 2011 came to $11,380, which is 4.2 times greater than the cost of the membership. The average investment at risk was $1,788. The return on average investment was 636 %. In other words, an average investment of $1,788 grew to $13,168 in our program. There were 32 total trades. 21 were winners (67%) and 10 were losers, and 1 was breakeven. 17 trades were Put Options, and 15 were Call Options. We played the DIA, SPY, QQQ, GLD and GDX options markets.

Our short-term indicator moved to a sideways signal Friday, as the 14 Day Stochastic moved to a new sell signal, placing it in conflict with the Purchasing Power Indicator and the 14 Day Stochastic. This suggests stocks are topping short-term, and a trend turn is imminent. Confirmation of the next significant decline starting would come with a drop in our PPI to negative -101.21 and a sell. The overall body of age indicators suggests the rallies from October 4th and December 19th, 2011 are just about over. I would not be surprised by one more pop early next week, then a key reversal down. This coming short-term decline (the first leg down of large degree wave 3 down) should last 2 to 4 weeks and take about 10 percent off the averages.

There is another Bradley model turn date this Wednesday, January 11th, but we never got the turn for the scheduled Bradley model turn date, so maybe the two turn dates marry and point to this coming top, which should be a major top for the stock market. On occasion Bradley model turns come a week or two before or after turn dates, especially if the turn expected is a major turn, which the December 28th date suggests.

Friday's Unemployment number for December from the Bureau of Labor Statistics had little effect on the market, as Friday's internals were mild. They reported that the Unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent and that the economy generated 200,000 jobs. 11,000 of those jobs were made up, an estimate of new jobs from new businesses they guess were created. I'm an elected official of our local government and just found out that a nearby middle income neighborhood of 145 homes has 10 in foreclosure. Last week, in one of them, the husband, committed suicide, he was so distraught, leaving a wife and 2 kids. There were only 2 in foreclosure a year ago. This is an election year; expect the BLS employment numbers reported to look better as November 2012 approaches. As for the truth in those coming numbers, well you be the judge.

As shown in our Extraordinary Developments indicators, on page 8, the PPT is likely to support markets at this time, but projections show this support is only for a few more days. There is the possibility of a Golden Bullish Crossover of the 50 Day Moving Average above the 200 Day Moving average, but these crossovers need to be decisive for a continuation of the rising price trend. If it happens over the next few days, it suggests prices could continue to rally higher over the next month, delaying the expected wave 2-up top. But stocks are struggling to break out higher, so we may not see that decisive Golden Cross move where the 50 Day Moving Average rises sharply above the 200 Day Moving Average.

DJIA PPI  -95.91         On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast  83.33 Slow 88.67  On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast  76.67 Slow 88.89 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day 83.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day 63.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day 56.67
Secondary Trend Indicator  +28          On a Buy
Demand Power  -4 to 392  Supply Pressure  0 at 363   On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator + 90.20
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2219.49
Plunge Protection Team Indicator  -22.09   On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator  460.9  On a Buy
NYSE New Highs  95 New Lows 13     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The Daily Full Stochastics suggest the NDX is topping and at least a short-term decline is imminent. The NDX Purchasing Power trend trading indicator signal remains on a buy signal Wednesday, as do the 14 and 30 day Stochastics. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator remains neutral. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Wednesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment. A new decline should quickly be confirmed with new short-term sell signals.

The Demand Power Indicator was flat Friday, while Supply Pressure fell 1 point, telling us Friday's rally was weak. Upside momentum is slowing, indicative of approaching tops.
    
The Elliott Wave mapping suggests the NDX is putting in a major top, and it is possible wave iii down, could have started, which could take prices significantly lower in 2012.

NDX PPI  -7.33    On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast  63.00 Slow 61.40 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast  68.00 Slow 68.00 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator  +17.0 On a Buy

RUT PPI  +41.62  On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator  +154.00  On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments        

A few days ago, the rally for precious metals and mining stocks was young. But the Daily Full Stochastics have risen fast on price action that is not that impressive. This tells us the short-term trend is already getting old, approaching a top. This could be the top of small degree wave {a} up of a three wave {a}-up, {b}-down, {c} up of {d} up. The larger degree Intermediate-term trend is still up, as the Bullish trend still has upside targets near the upper boundary of possible Bullish Wedge patterns we show on page 41, the Bullish percent index remains very low at 13.79 percent, and the Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought. The minimum upside target is the top of the declining trend-line of the possible triangle, 580ish in the HUI and 1,700ish in Gold. Once the coming corrective decline completes, prices should rally toward those upside targets.

The Elliott Wave mapping on pages 40 and 41 suggest large degree wave fours down are either complete, and a large wave five up is about to start, or large degree wave fours down are forming declining bullish wedges, with the wave {d}-up rally underway. In fact wave {d} up is almost halfway complete, but after a small corrective decline, could see another 10 percent rally before topping. In either case a rally of some significance has started. We believe on a larger scale, the primary trend remains up for 2012.

HUI PPI  268.38 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast  20.00 Slow 14.44 On a Buy

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Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
 

McHugh verwacht zeer binnenkort 5-up :

Stocks are down mid-day Wednesday, December 28^th, on light volume. Wednesday's decline has removed the overbought short-term condition of the market. Major stock indices are now oversold, based upon the 60 minute and 30 minute Full Stochastics. It looks like wave 4-down is occurring Wednesday, with wave 5-up next to complete the rally for c-up of 2-up. This coming rally could complete by the end of this week or early next.

Goede morgen , uit de McHugh-update :

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

Our next report will be Tuesday, December 27th, and will include Friday's market results as well as Tuesday's. Markets are closed Monday. We sincerely wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah.

Prices rallied Thursday, but did not yet exceed the December 7th highs. Still, the rally was strong and generated more new buy signals, this time in the 10 day average advance/decline line indicators, and the Blue Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure indicator. This increases the odds prices will exceed the December 7th highs.

If prices rise above December 7th's highs, then it is possible wave 2-up from October 3rd is not yet over. There is a possible Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern we show on page 18, which is not yet confirmed, but would suggest wave 2-up needs another strong rally leg to finish. So the key is the December 7th highs, 12,257.67 in the Industrials and 1,267.06 in the S&P 500. If stocks rise above those levels over the next week, wave 2-up needs more time and more rally. If stocks remain under those levels, all systems remain go that wave 3-down is underway, and a powerful decline should hit in early 2012.        

This Head & Shoulders bottom pattern would mean a Double Zig Zag pattern is finishing for wave 2-up, with the rally from Monday, December 19th the start of the wave c-up leg of the second part of this Zigzag. It would allow a rally of another 3 to 5 percent. If that rally is occurring, it should last to the end of this month, meaning wave 3-down would begin at the coming Bradley model turn date, around December 28th +/-.       

De weekend-update van McHugh:

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

In exactly one year, a new four year term for a President that has just been elected in the United States will begin, and anxiety over the December 21st, 2012 prophecies should be at its extreme, rivaling at the very least the fear that existed as the year 2000 rolled over, but I suspect will be far greater as more of the fear will come from an out of control sensation than the 2000 computer programming threat triggered. Whether that fear is justified or not will be answered a few days later. Whether any of us personally believes or not in the December 21st, 2012 scientific and prophetic warnings from a host of ancient and modern sources will be irrelevant, because at the very least millions, perhaps billions of people on planet earth will believe, and will act accordingly to survive anticipated global upheaval. That collective behavior will affect the markets. The power within Technical Analysis is that it identifies the collective psyche of the masses. More than maybe any year ever, Technical Analysis will be important in 2012. Europe's financial woes as well as the sovereign debt woes of most nations on earth will be worse than they are now, with major political and financial ramifications a certainty. How those ramifications manifest will be incredible to observe. Yes, 2012 is imminent. This promises to be a market year for the ages. We will be there every step of the way, God willing, and will do everything we can to help you make money and protect wealth. May God bless us all in 2012.

The odds are high that the HUI Mining Stocks Index, Gold, and Silver are about to rally sharply. We show a very interesting chart of the Bullish Percent for Miners on page 39. Upside targets for the HUI are 580ish and for Gold around 1,750ish, reaching those levels by late January. 

Stocks continue in their downtrend, which is stair stepping lower, the slow rounded top to wave 3-down will accelerate into a plunge in 2012.

The Industrials fell 2.42 points, closing at 11,866.39 Friday, December 16th. The S&P 500 rose 3.91 points, closing at 1,219.66. NYSE volume rose to 108 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 67 percent, with advancing issues at 62 percent, with upside points at 71 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 4 points to 381, while Supply Pressure fell 4 points to 403, telling us buying strength was moderate, more than the point gain suggests. The Supply Pressure Indicator rose decisively above the Demand Power Indicator Monday, December 12th, triggering an "Enter Short" positions signal, and remains there Friday, December 16th. The Supply Pressure Indicator needed to rise 10 points above the Demand Power Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 75, with New Lows falling to 64, close to a Hindenburg but not there yet.

McClellan Oscillator rose to negative -53.06 Friday. The Summation Index fell to positive + 1,265.48 Thursday.

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 56.67 from 50.00. The percent above 10 day rose to 46.67 from 33.33. The percent above 5 day rose to 53.33 from 36.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to negative -53.06, remaining on a "sell" signal from December 14th, 2011, needing to rise above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "sell" signal Friday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 56.67, above the Slow at 52.00, remaining on a "sell" signal from December 8th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 50.00, below the Slow at 63.33, remaining on a "sell" signal from December 12th. The Fast had to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -113.33, remaining on a "sell" signal from December 8th, needing to rise above negative -108.98 for a new buy.

On Friday December 16th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 5 points to positive + 20, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

Current Stock Market Trends As of December 16th, 2011:

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sell Signal since December 12th, 2011.

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since December 12th, 2011.

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of December 16th, 2011

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Oversold.

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sell Signal since December 13th, 2011.

Our next phi mate turn date is ideally scheduled for December 20th, 2011, this Tuesday. December 20th, 2011 is 3,003 trading days from 1/14/2000, the all-time inflation adjusted closing top in the Industrials. Its phi mate is the June 4th, 2007 closing Top, which came 1,856 Trading Days from 1/14/00. This is a ratio of 1,856 / 3003 = 0.618, or phi. The next phi mate turn date after this is not until March 7th, 2012. This December 20th +/- turn could be a short-term low. There is a major Bradley model turn date scheduled for December 28th. That could be a major turn event.

Our most recent ideal scheduled phi mate turn date was December 7th, 2011. That proved to be a direct hit top that started a 410 point, 3.34 percent decline in the Industrials, so far, into December 14th's low of 11,786.47. December 7th, 2011 is 2,994 trading days from 1/14/2000, the all-time inflation adjusted closing top in the Industrials. Its phi mate is the May 24th, 2007 closing Low, which came 1,850 Trading Days from 1/14/00. This is a ratio of 1,850 / 2994 = 0.618, or phi.

The previous ideal scheduled phi mate turn date was November 11th, 2011. That proved to be a direct hit top that started a 922 point, 7.59 percent decline in the Industrials into November 25th's low of 11,231.56. November 11th, 2011 was 2,977 trading days from 1/14/2000, the all-time inflation adjusted closing top in the Industrials. Its phi mate was the May 10th, 2007 closing Low, which came 1,840 Trading Days from 1/14/00. This is a ratio of 1,840 / 2977 = 0.618, or phi.

The NASDAQ 100 rose 11.47 points Friday, closing at 2,238.18. The Russell 2000 rose 6.04 points Friday, closing at 722.05. The HUI rose 9.04 points to 510.44 Friday. January Gold rose to 1599.8; Silver rose to 29.61; while January Oil fell to 93.78. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.07 to 80.26. U.S. Bonds rose a point to 145^09. The VIX fell 0.82 to 24.29. 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of December 16th, 2011:

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Sell Signal since December 8th, 2011.

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since December 8th, 2011.

Our 2 years for $459 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 22 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

Check out our Amazing Holiday Special! 10 Months for $179, or 13 Months for $229, good through Midnight EST Sunday, December 18th, 2011, at http:…..rindex.com . If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend. Why not give a subscription as a holiday gift?

Available now, McHugh's exclusive Platinum Trading Service. We are now offering a six months term for $1,695 for our Platinum Service at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button. If you pay by check, we offer you an extra 10 percent off the Platinum subscriptions, to $1,525.00.

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Er wordt weinig ge-EW-d hier …..

 

 

 

De SPX laat vanaf de low op 1158.66 een mooie impuls zien. Helaas geeft de pullback nog geen duidelijke indicatie of daarmee in dit scenario de groene [a] is geplaatst.   

Meer info op de blog

http:…..ogspot.com

Ja, Circum, jammer, maar updates blijven achterwege zie ik.