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McHugh gelooft nog steeds in een nieuwe v-up om 3-up vanaf december af te maken :

 

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments          

 

Wednesday's decline is continuing a sideways pattern over the past three weeks, and looks very much like a wave iv pattern. This pattern is very close to completion and should lead to another up move in stocks. The next rising move in stocks should be wave v-up and complete the rally from December 2011, the top for wave 3-up. The wave iv pattern could need another downleg, with a possible downside target of 12,970ish in the Industrials. Or, wave v-up could start immediately. Wave v-up could need a week or two to complete.

 

Our short-term key trendfinder indicators remain on a sideways signal, the Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a new sideways signal Wednesday, and the Secondary Trend Indicator is deteriorating. But no sell signals in the Blue Chips tonight, except we did get a new sell in the 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator Wednesday.

 

What we are witnessing is a market where prices should rise one more time, while internal deteriorate, the perfect expectation for a significant top. Tops take time, so another week or two could be possible before wave 4-down begins. There is an outside chance that wave 3-up has topped, but if so, it is topping with ugly and unusual sideways patterns. If 3-up has topped, prices should soon plunge. This is not what we expect at this time.

 

DJIA PPI -63.25 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 70.00 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 26.67 Slow 51.67 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day 63.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day 23.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day 20.00

Secondary Trend Indicator -8 to +9 On a Buy

Demand Power -7 to 368 Supply Pressure + 9 to 372 Neutral

McClellan Oscillator -152.88

McClellan Osc Summation Index +2810.04

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -4.40 On a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -125.6 On a Sell

NYSE New Highs 30 New Lows 48    

 

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments                

 

The NDX short-term indicators generated a new sell signal Wednesday.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator remains on a buy signal Wednesday, April 4th. On Wednesday, DP fell 6 points to 400 while Supply Pressure rose 7 points to 397, telling us the decline was strong.

 

NDX PPI +67.22 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.00 Slow 71.80 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 32.00 Slow 57.60 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -3.6 On a Buy

 

RUT PPI 67.62 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -174.0 On a Buy

 

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments  

 

        

Prices have dropped below the bottom boundary of the declining triangle, which may be morphing into a Declining Bullish Wedge, with the fifth wave {e} down approaching completion. New buy signals will tell us when wave 4-down is over and 5-up has started. Not there yet.

 

There is an excellent set-up now in place for a terrific rally to begin in Mining Stocks an precious metals. The HUI Purchasing Power and 30 day Stochastic indicators remain on sell signals Wednesday, April 4th. Once they turn to new buys, this could be a wonderful buying opportunity. The aging indicators show that this decline is old and a bottom is approaching.

 

Gold and Silver have not dropped to the bottom boundary of their triangles, so there may be more downside coming for them, however it is not unusual for the last wave of a triangle to truncate, not reach its expected boundary line if the coming wave is going to be powerful. They also could be in small degree wave {b} rallies, with {c} down next to complete 4-down. At this time, it is all about when we get the new buy signals in the HUI PPI and 30 day stochastic.

 

Wave 5-up could consume most of the second quarter of 2012.

 

HUI PPI 249.82 On a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 2.22 On a Sell

 

Best regards,

 

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Maarten; fijn dat je er weer bent. En nooit meer 'sorry' zeggen; je bent tot niets verplicht. Maar ik ben wel blij dat ze er weer zijn

De nieuwe update van McHugh : eerst nog up de komende dagen, daarna een down :

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments          

If we look at the chart at the bottom of page 23, we see the Industrials are completing a textbook  Ascending Bullish Triangle with an upside price target of 13,500 to 13,600ish. This pattern has formed over the past three weeks but needs an upside resolution. Wednesday's sharp decline was needed for this pattern to look right, and it failed to take out the bottom boundary, suggesting this pattern's boundaries are important support and resistance. But prices should take out this pattern's upper boundary resistance level soon, probably in the next few days on an upward thrust with some power. Of course all patterns are simply probabilities not guarantees, but the odds are pretty good for this pattern to break out to the upside. This upside breakout should result in a final top for large degree wave 3 from December 2011. A decisive decline below the bottom boundary would be Bearish, and increase the odds wave 3's top is in.            

DJIA PPI -59.10 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 70.67 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 43.33 Slow 60.00 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day 70.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day 46.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day 53.33

Secondary Trend Indicator -8 to +17 On a Buy

Demand Power -4 to 375 Supply Pressure +3 to 363 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -58.73

McClellan Osc Summation Index +2962.92

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -1.96 On a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +57.4 On a Buy

NYSE New Highs 138 New Lows 23    

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments       

The NDX short-term indicators remain on a sideways signal Tuesday, with the 14 Day Stochastic on a sell, in conflict with the 30 day stochastic and PPI. The age indicators suggest this rally is getting old and a top is approaching.

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator remains on a buy signal Tuesday, April 3rd. On Tuesday, DP fell 1 point to 406 while Supply Pressure rose 2 points to 390, telling us the decline was weak.

NDX PPI +76.42 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.00 Slow 77.00 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.00 Slow 64.20 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +6.2 On a Buy

RUT PPI +71.30 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -23.6 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments

Prices have reached their downside target, the bottom boundary of the declining triangle has been reached, and the fifth wave {e} down could be close to completion. New buy signals will tell us when wave 4-down is over and 5-up has started. Not there yet.

There is an excellent set-up now in place for a terrific rally to begin in Mining Stocks. The HUI Purchasing Power and 30 day Stochastic indicators remain on sell signals Tuesday, April 3rd. Once they turn to new buys, this could be a wonderful buying opportunity. The aging indicators show that this decline is old and a bottom is approaching.

Gold and Silver have not dropped to the bottom boundary of their triangles, so there may be more downside coming for them, however it is not unusual for the last wave of a triangle to truncate, not reach its expected boundary line if the coming wave is going to be powerful. They also could be in small degree wave {b} rallies, with {c} down next to complete 4-down.

Wave 5-up could consume most of the second quarter of 2012.

HUI PPI +256.89 On a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 2.22 On a Sell

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Maarten,

Denk je dat het gaat lukken om de komende weekend update te posten? Ben toch wel benieuwd of McHugh zijn visie vasthoudt.

Goede morgen, de nieuwe McHugh-update :

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments          

We got new buy signals in our short-term blue chip key trend-finder indicators as the 14 day and 30 day stochastic indicators on Monday joined the Purchasing Power Indicator's buy signal Friday. However, this buy signal is coming at a less than ideal background set-up. The Weekly Full Stochastics are overbought, and for an extended new rising trend to follow new buy signals it is better that the buys come with the Weekly FS oversold. The Daily FS is not oversold but is not overbought either, so this is supportive of a small rally trend here. Of concern for bulls is the VIX just generated a sell signal set up Monday, March 12th when it closed below the bottom boundary of the 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands. Once the VIX closes back above the bottom boundary a new sell signal will be generated. A VIX sell signal is a fairly reliable indicator. So our conclusion tonight is we could see a bit more rally over the coming days, however a top of some significance should arrive over the next few weeks.

There is a major Bradley model turn date scheduled for March 16th +/- a few days, so with prices rising into this turn date, a top should be coming any time over the next week or two.      

Monday's volume was pathetic, which is another factor that warns not to get too excited about the new buy signals in our short-term key trend-finder indicators. Volume continues to weaken as this rally ages, which is a bearish early warning of a significant top over the horizon.

A rise above 833 in the RUT would suggest wave v-up is occurring, with 860 or better a strong probability.      

DJIA PPI -71.05 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 55.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast  66.67 Slow 51.11 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day 66.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day 70.00

DJIA % Above 5 Day 93.33

Secondary Trend Indicator + 26 On a Buy

Demand Power -3 to 375 Supply Pressure + 1 to 360 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -28.01

McClellan Osc Summation Index +3750.24

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -6.06 On a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +57.4 On a Sell

NYSE New Highs New Lows     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments                

The NDX short-term indicators remain on a buy signal Monday. This suggests more upside is likely in the short-run.

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator remains on a buy signal Monday, March 12th.

NDX PPI +48.20 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.00 Slow 56.40 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 65.00 Slow 50.80 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +6.8 On a Buy

RUT PPI +63.50 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -74.20 On a Sell

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments  

The HUI Purchasing Power and 30 day Stochastic indicators remain on sell signals Monday, March 12th. Wave {e} down of 4-down is underway, and wave 5-up has not started.

Charts on pages 28 through 30 show that prices did not rise decisively above the upper boundary of the declining triangle patterns, and now that prices have plunged from those upper boundary lines, and with new HUI sell signals, the odds are strong that wave 4-down in these markets has not completed and 5-up has not started. With markets suddenly dropping hard from here, it should be the final decline before a very strong wave 5-up rally begins. Maximum downside targets (support) are 1,525 in Gold, 480 in the HUI and 27 in Silver. The HUI is not far from that level.

The wave 4-bottom should arrive within a month, and wave 5-up could consume all of the second quarter of 2012.

HUI PPI 269.93 On a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 17.78 On a Sell

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen, de weekend-update van McHugh:

Today's Market Comments:            

This week there is the next phi mate turn date scheduled for March 7th. The last turn, December 20th, actually came a day early and has led to a strong rally over the past two and a half months. There are four cycle turns due this month, so we are expecting a top of significance sometime this month. There are also two Bearish divergences which are mature and suggest a top is likely this month, involving the Secondary Trend Indicator (Our Technical Indicator Index) and the 10 day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, which we show on pages 6 and 7. The internal condition of the market is weakening as this rally persists. This internal market weakness warns a top is coming soon.

Before that top arrives, we could see another small pop in prices for a few days. That is based upon the Russell 2000's pattern. The RUT's 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics and its Daily Full Stochastics are oversold this weekend. Also, the RUT's price pattern shows a complex a-down, b-up, c-down 3-3-5 Flat, a-down, b-up, c-down zig-zag double combination pattern that looks close to completion for wave iv down. The sideways trend-channel that represents the top of that pattern suggests another pop is possible before "the" significant top arrives. It would be a pattern aberration if the Russell 2000 small caps have hit their significant top, since sideways trend-channels that last a month are almost never tops, and the RUT right now has not exceeded that sideways pattern. It needs to, or we are seeing the first flat trend-channel top I have ever seen in 35 years in this business. Tops typically can be rounded or sharp, but not flat. Anything is possible, but the odds suggest a short-term pop in stocks before the significant top arrives. The Russell 2000 also has generated a Bollinger Band Buy signal set up, closing below the bottom boundary of its 2 standard deviation BB's.

DJIA PPI -69.62 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 66.67 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 62.78 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day 63.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day 50.00

DJIA % Above 5 Day 46.67

Secondary Trend Indicator (Technical Indicator Index) -5 to + 25 On a Buy

Demand Power -6 to 376 Supply Pressure +4 to 357 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -114.52

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4,403.47

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -3.31 On a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +59.2 On a Buy

NYSE New Highs 111 New Lows 16    

NDX PPI +47.64 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 67.00 Slow 70.00 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 63.40 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -2.4 On a Buy

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments                

The NDX short-term indicators are on a buy signal, suggesting more upside is possible in the NDX, however this rally is aging.

The NASDAQ Composite hit 3,000 briefly Wednesday, which hasn't happened in a decade. It still sits over 40 percent below its all-time high.

RUT PPI +60.44 On a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -408.2 On a Sell

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments

On Thursday, Precious Metals and Mining Stocks bounced a bit from Wednesday's powerful decline, but the HUI key trend-finder indicators that generated new sell signals Wednesday remain on sells this weekend. This suggests wave {e} down of 4-down is underway, and wave 5-up has not started.

Charts on pages 41 through 44 show that prices did not rise decisively above the upper boundary of the declining triangle patterns, and now that prices have plunged from those upper boundary lines, and with new HUI sell signals, the odds are strong that wave 4-down in these markets has not completed and 5-up has not started. With markets suddenly dropping hard from here, it should be the final decline before a very strong wave 5-up rally begins. Maximum downside targets (support) are 1,525 in Gold, 480 in the HUI and 27 in Silver.

The wave 4-bottom should arrive within a month, and wave 5-up could consume all of the second quarter of 2012.

HUI PPI 275.93 On a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 72.78 On a Sell

Goede morgen, de nieuwe McHugh-update : watch out :

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:

We are definitely seeing increasing weakness in the underlying condition of the stock market. Over the past few weeks we have seen our very reliable Secondary Trend Indicator (formerly known as our Technical Indicator Index) drop 20 points while stocks have risen 5 percent. This is not a sell signal but it is an early warning that the market is approaching a top that will lead to a sharp reversal. We are also seeing an early warning sign of a top where the Demand Power and Supply Pressure Indicators are converging. Supply Pressure is increasing, slightly, but increasing nevertheless. All that is missing for a strong decline to strike is a sharp rise in Supply Pressure.

As for the timing of a coming sharp decline, we have to pay attention to three cycle turn dates due in March: A major Bradley model turn date on March 16th, a phi mate turn date on March 7th, and the spring equinox (which we will show how that has produced turns over the past decade in this coming weekend's report). This suggests a major turn could arrive between the second and third weeks of March. That does not preclude an earlier decline. Cycle turns can come early or late by a few weeks.

But the bottom line is we cannot expect a significant decline until the trend-finder indicators shown on page 2 turn to sell signals. Once this top arrives, stocks could fall fast and furious, making everyone forget about the slow momentum rally from December. The decline could be triggered by a news event. What the indicators are warning now is that market psychology is changing, and negative news could be a selling trigger when it arrives. In strong bullish underlying markets, negative news is generally ignored by markets. That is about to change.

We got a new sell signal Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012 in the Russell 2000 small caps 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator.

DJIA PPI -71.87 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 74.00 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 72.22 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day 76.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day 73.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day 66.67

Secondary Trend Indicator + 33 On a Buy

Demand Power -5 to 386 Supply Pressure + 3 to 353 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -75.84

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4,792.49

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 12.02 On a Sell

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 66.2 On a Buy

NYSE New Highs 102 New Lows 4    

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:               

The NDX short-term indicators are on a buy signal, suggesting more upside is possible in the NDX, however this rally is aging.  We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Tuesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 26 and 27, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. The upside price target for wave 5 is 2,650ish. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

NDX PPI + 38.97 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 74.80 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 56.00 Slow 65.80 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 1.2 On a Buy

RUT PPI +64.19 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -218.20 On a Sell

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:          

Mining stocks and Gold have risen since we got new buy signals in the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and the HUI 30 Day stochastic on powerful upside momentum Tuesday, February 21st. This makes the case that wave 4 down was an {a} down, {b} up, {c} down move that is over, and a powerful wave 5-up move has started. Prices have risen above the upper boundary of the triangle in Gold and are close to doing so in the HUI, meaning this wave 5-up move is close to being confirmed. Should prices decline sharply from here, it means the buy signals are a fake out, and the final wave {e} down move for 4-down is next. But even if that happens, the decline should only last a few weeks. Once that decline ends, if it comes, a powerful wave 5 rally should take precious metals and mining stocks sharply higher for months.

The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here medium term. Prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, fully confirming that wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic. Wave 5-up could take the HUI toward 700 and Gold toward 2,500 – at least.

The long-term trend is up, so buying declines after they have matured should be a winning strategy.

HUI PPI + 283.43 On a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 90.00 Slow 59.44 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen, de weekend-update van McHugh, voorlopig even stijgen:

Today's Market Comments    

Our key short-term trend indicators moved back to a buy signal Friday, February 17th, when the 30 Day Stochastic joined the PPI and 14 Day Stochastic on a buy. This suggest wave 5-up has started and could take stocks higher by another 3 to 5 percent. This rally could last into our March cycle turns, where the spring equinox, a major Bradley model turn and a phi mate turn date are scheduled.

There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Friday, suggesting a large price move is likely over the next day or two.

Over the horizon, after this next 2 to 4 week price move finishes, a significant top looks to be brewing, based in large part upon the clear and large Bearish divergence between our 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator and the S&P 500 (shown in chart on page 22), but also upon the Huge Megaphone pattern we show on page 24.

DJIA PPI -71.17 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 86.67 Slow 70.00 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 86.67 Slow 67.78 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day 86.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day 86.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day 80.00

Secondary Trend Indicator + 42 On a Buy

Demand Power -1 to 393 Supply Pressure flat 0 at 348 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -8.15

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4,895.53

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 9.97 On a Buy

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +123.1 On a Buy

NYSE New Highs 178 New Lows 0   

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments       

The NDX short-term indicators are on a buy signal, suggesting more upside is likely in the NDX.  We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Friday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 28 and 29, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. The upside price target for wave 5 is 2,650ish. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 95 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 95 level. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now. Friday's NDX Demand Power fell 2 points to 415, while Selling Pressure rose 3 points to 390, telling us the decline was mild. 

NDX PPI + 39.91 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 75.00 Slow 77.80 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 69.00 Slow 69.60 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 2.2 On a Buy

RUT PPI +66.61 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -126.6 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments

The HUI's wave {e} decline may be half way complete. The HUI Purchasing Power Indicator joined the 30 Day Stochastic on a Sell Signal Tuesday, suggesting a declining trend is underway. The strong downside momentum necessary to trigger the new sell signals supports the scenario that wave 4-down is not finished, is forming a triangle and this decline is the final wave {e}-down of that pattern. Downside targets are the bottom boundary of the triangles, 1,525ish in Gold and 475ish in the HUI.

The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here medium term, after the short-term corrective decline finishes. Once the current short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, confirming wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic.

The long-term trend is up, so buying declines after they have matured should be a winning strategy.

HUI PPI + 276.25 On a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00 Slow 58.33 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen, de McHugh-update : " Get ready" :

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments          

Stocks had their worst day of 2012 Wednesday, February 15th, the second time we had to say that in the past week. Most of the decline came in the afternoon, and Apple, the darling of the techs and up 25 percent in 2012, had a key reversal day Wednesday, suggesting the NDX may be topping at least on a short-term basis. As for the blue chips, we saw another short-term key indicator component move to a sell signal Wednesday, the 30 day stochastic. It joined the 14 day stochastic on a sell signal, which means we are one step closer to getting a complete sell signal in the short-term trend-finder indicator. The Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a buy signal, which in combination suggests stocks are either putting in a sideways corrective decline, or are in the process of topping, with a new downtrend close at hand. That is the 2 week time horizon forecast. If the PPI moves to a sell signal, then we can have confidence a significant decline has started that lasts at least a week to two weeks.

On a longer time horizon basis, affecting the medium and intermediate term, there are now three Bearish Divergences with prices, tonight, that have reached the point where we can say with confidence that a significant top is approaching sometime over the next month. In the Extraordinary Development section on page 8, we have been mentioning the Bearish Divergence between prices and the Percent Above indicators. However, tonight, on page 22, we show a large and highly reliable Bearish Divergence between the 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator and the S&P 500. This is a big boy Bearish Divergence, and once it finishes, we will have a significant decline. This divergence is 6 weeks old, but the divergence is very strong, the 10 day A/D falling nearly 600 points while stocks have risen sharply. That is a bad development for the stock market. It means fewer stocks are participating in this rally from December and October 2011. I cannot emphasize enough that this A/D Bearish Divergence on page 22 is serious business. This analysis does not pinpoint when the top will arrive, but it does tell us something is wrong with the underlying strength of the market and a large decline is approaching. With cycle turn dates scheduled for March, it could be a major top arrives in March. If so, between now and then maybe we see a wave 4-down decline and wave 5-up rally with the major Grand Supercycle top arriving in March. We need to pay attention to the key indicators on page 2 for the best guidance on the trends. The third Bearish Divergence we note tonight is between prices and the Secondary Trend Indicator, chart shown at the top of page 6. Again, the underlying strength of this market is falling apart. Volatility is coming back, by March at the latest. That is what we see tonight. Tonight we have a loud "Get ready" message from the markets. Something bad is coming, probably by March. Some news event or events will most likely occur in conjunction with this coming negative market psychological period.          

DJIA PPI -75.63 On a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 64.67 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 67.78 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day 53.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day 20.00

DJIA % Above 5 Day 13.33

Secondary Trend Indicator -5 to + 36 On a Buy

Demand Power -5 to 388 Supply Pressure + 5 to 353 On a Buy

McClellan Oscillator -83.84

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4,918.51

Plunge Protection Team Indicator On a Buy

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +137.8 On a Buy

NYSE New Highs 159 New Lows 2    

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments                

The NDX 14 Day Stochastic Indicator moved to a new Sell Signal Friday, while the NDX Purchasing Power and 30 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remain on a buy signal Wednesday, February 15th, in combination a sideways signal that remains in place Wednesday. This suggests the NDX is either starting a back and forth sideways move, or is forming a short-term top that could lead to a short-term decline. Once these three indicators all move to new sell signals, the next significant short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Wednesday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 27 and 28, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. The upside price target for wave 5 is 2,650ish. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 95 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 95 level. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now. Wednesday's NDX Demand Power fell 3 points to 413, while Selling Pressure rose 4 points to 391, telling us the decline was moderate. 

NDX PPI + 32.16 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 75.00 Slow 79.40 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 62.00 Slow 67.00 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 4.4 On a Buy

RUT PPI + 62.30 On a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -67.40 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments  

The HUI Purchasing Power Indicator joined the 30 Day Stochastic on a Sell Signal Tuesday, suggesting a declining trend is underway. The strong downside momentum necessary to trigger the new sell signals places the scenario that wave 4-down is not finished back at the top, meaning wave 4-down is forming a triangle and this decline is the final wave {e}-down of that pattern. Downside targets are the bottom boundary of the triangles, 1,525ish in Gold and 475ish in the HUI.

The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here medium term, after the short-term corrective decline finishes. Once the current short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, confirming wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic.

The long-term trend is up, so buying declines after they have matured should be a winning strategy.

HUI PPI +273.07 On a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.00 Slow 66.11 On a Sell

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Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

De uitgebreide weekend-update van McHugh:

r Subscribers,

The Latest Expanded Weekend U.S. Market Newsletter, issue no. 1769, February 10th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Weekend button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Weekend Market Report at the website):

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Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:        

Friday was the worst day for the stock market so far in 2012. It was enough to generate a new sell signal in the 14 day stochastic, meaning the short-term key trend-finder indicators are now on a sideways signal, suggesting stocks are either starting a back and forth sideways move or are topping and about to start a new short-term trend down. Friday's internals were weak. The McClellan Oscillator moved negative Friday, telling us a majority of NYSE stocks are now in declining trends.

We present an analysis this weekend on page 10 of the relationship between the Bullish Percent Index for the NYSE and tops in stocks. We see that the BPNYA has reached the level where we get a 3 to 4 month early warning that a major top is approaching. Then on page 11, we show the relationship between the Cumulative NYSE Advance/Decline Line and stocks and tops. Here we are looking for a Bearish divergence, but that has not started yet, which suggests that once any decline that starts here finishes, stocks could/should rally to new highs above recent highs. That particular study supports the big picture scenario where stocks are completing a massive multi-decade Megaphone Top, Jaws of Death pattern, that allows for stocks to rally further in 2012 before the top of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} ends. But the timing of that top can occur at any time, and no later than early 2013. In other words, we may have a bit more time before a decade of financial and market tribulation begins. In combination, what these studies suggest is that stocks could correct in a minor decline soon, then rebound over the next few months to new highs, accompanied by a Bearish Divergence in both the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and the Buillish Percent Index, which results in a final top for the Megaphone Jaws of Death pattern and the end of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} up later in 2012.

DJIA PPI -75.95 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 72.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 75.56 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day 63.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day 41.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 23.33
Secondary Trend Indicator -7 to +43 On a Buy
Demand Power -7 to 394 Supply Pressure + 7 to 349 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator -55.47
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 5036.02
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 5.80 On a Sell
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 270.0 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 80 New Lows 8     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The NDX 14 Day Stochastic Indicator moved to a new Sell Signal Friday, while the NDX Purchasing Power and 30 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remain on a buy signal Friday, February 10th, in combination a sideways signal. This suggests the NDX is either starting a back and forth sideways move, or is forming a short-term top that could lead to a short-term decline. Once these three indicators all move to new sell signals, the next significant short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Friday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 27 and 28, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. The upside price target for wave 5 is 2,650ish. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 95 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 95 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Tuesday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now. Friday's NDX Demand Power fell 5 points to 413, while Selling Pressure rose 4 points to 388, telling us the decline was moderate.  

NDX PPI +31.39 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 78.00 Slow 86.20 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 59.00 Slow 73.60 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 5.6 On a Buy

RUT PPI +61.80 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +40.20 On a Buy
 
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:        

The HUI 30 Day Stochastic generated a new Sell Signal Friday, while the PPI remains on a buy. This adds some uncertainty to the short-term forecast, but is consistent with the start of a short-term corrective decline within wave 5-up. If a coming decline is deep, it means wave 4-down is forming a triangle and this decline is the final wave {e}-down of that pattern. Absent a deep decline here, Wave 4-down was an {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down 3-3-5 Flat pattern, which is likely finished. The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here, perhaps after the short-term corrective decline finishes. The breakouts above what we have drawn as the upper declining boundary of the Wedges on pages 29 and 30 are impressive, and suggest wave 5-up is underway. Once the current short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, confirming wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic.

The long-term trend is up, so buying declines should be a winning strategy. Initial downside targets for the short-term corrective decline are 1675ish in Gold and 520ish in the HUI, with further support at the recent lows, 1,525ish and 480ish.

HUI PPI + 275.57 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 82.78 On a Sell

Our Lifetime Platinum Membership Offer, which credits you for all past subscription payments ever made, is good through March 31st, 2012. Email us for the amount of credit you are entitled to.

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
 

Was door verplaatsing van Portugal naar NL gisterochtend niet in de gelegenheid, maar hierbij alsnog de update van vrijdagochtend :

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Thursday Market Newsletter, issue no. 1768, February 9th, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, age analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the Daily Market Report at the website):

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Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments        

There may be an approaching crack in the floating climb of worry tonight. There are small Rising Bearish Wedge patterns very close to completion in both the Industrials and S&P 500, shown in charts on page 26. There should be at least a 200 point decline in the Industrials and 20 point decline in the S&P 500 over the next 1 to 3 days. Not a big deal decline, but a lot more than we have seen in a while, and perhaps a sign that volatility is about to increase. Overnight futures are suggesting a decline starting Friday morning.

The S&P 500 has not risen above its May highs, which means there is a Bearish upside non-confirmation between the Industrials and S&P 500. The S&P has to rise above 1,370.58 to confirm. As long as this non-confirmation continues, there is high risk of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} topping at any time. Should the S&P 500 rise above 1,370.58, that would be medium term bullish, and support another rise in stocks of 10 percent +/-.

Thursday's price action was unimpressive except it did move the above noted Rising Bearish Wedge closer to completion. The key trend-finder indicator signals shown on page 2 remain on buys tonight, and it will be very interesting to see what this coming decline will do to these indicators.

DJIA PPI -73.74 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 74.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow  77.78 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day 70.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day 86.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 53.33
Secondary Trend Indicator + 50 On a Buy
Demand Power down 2 to 401 Supply Pressure + 1 to 342 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator + 49.69
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 5,091.50
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 2.91 On a Buy
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 513.6 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 179 New Lows 5     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments        

The NDX Purchasing Power, and 30 and 14 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remain on a buy signal Thursday, February 9th. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next significant short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Thursday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 27 and 28, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. The upside price target for wave 5 is 2,650ish. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 95 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 95 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Tuesday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Thursday's NDX Demand Power rose 2 points to 418, while Selling Pressure was flat at 384, telling us the advance was weak.  

NDX PPI + 34.45 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 85.00 Slow 89.20 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.00 Slow 79.40 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator 13.2 On a Buy

RUT PPI + 64.45 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 252.7 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments
        
Wave 4-down was an {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down 3-3-5 Flat pattern, which is likely finished. The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here, perhaps after a short-term corrective decline continues that started last Friday. The breakouts above what we have drawn as the upper declining boundary of the Wedges on pages 29 and 30 are impressive, and suggest wave 5-up is underway. Once the current short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, confirming wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic.

The trend is up, so buying declines should be a winning strategy. Initial downside targets for the short-term corrective decline are 1675ish in Gold and 520ish in the HUI, with further support at the recent lows, 1,525ish and 480ish.

The HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and 30 Day Stochastic remain on buy signals. The HUI Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought, and are supportive of more rally.
    
HUI PPI + 277.53 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 86.11 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Inderdaad Jacob, hij is wat flexibeler geworden. Ook vandaag geeft hij daar blijk van :

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:        

The Industrials rose above their May 2nd, 2011 highs on Tuesday, February 7th, eliminating any possibility that Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} topped then, eliminating the mapping where wave 1 down fell to the October 4th 2011 lows, and eliminating the mapping that wave 2-up has been underway since October 4th. This price development Tuesday means Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} is still underway, and is finishing a massive very dangerous Megaphone Jaws of Death pattern. However, what it means is that prices are going to try to rise to the upper boundary of that Jaws of Death pattern, which allows the potential for another 2,000 Dow Points highr before Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} tops. That is the maximum potential for any further rise in stocks. It is important to understand that the Industrials do not have to rise that high, to 15,000ish, that Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down can start at any time. Repeat: At any time. Even if the Industrials rise to 15,000, the timing of this rise and the timing of the completion of the Jaws of Death pattern suggests that the top in stocks for the next decade should come by late 2012 or early 2013 at the latest.

The S&P 500 has not risen above its May highs, which means there is a Bearish upside non-confirmation between the Industrials and S&P 500. The S&P has to rise above 1,370.58 to confirm. As long as this non-confirmation continues, there is high risk of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} topping at any time. Should the S&P 500 rise above 1,370.58, that would be medium term bullish, and support another rise in stocks of 10 percent +/-.     

That is the big picture situation right now. As for the short-term picture, we have increasing confidence in the price mapping shown on page 24. We got a new buy signal in the 30 Day Stochastic Tuesday, February 7th, which means we now have consensus buy signals in all of our key trend-finder indicators for all time frames tonight, shown on pages 2 and 3. This suggests that prices are likely to rise further in the short-run. There could be a small decline over the next day or two as the 60, 30 and 15 minute Full Stochastics are overbought Tuesday. But once any decline completes, another round of rally legs should continue to higher highs.

Stocks tend to have major trend shifts around the spring equinox. There is a phi mate turn date in early March. This could be a time target for a price top of significance. It may mean stocks rally for another 3 to 4 weeks.

Goede morgen, de weekend-update van McHugh.  Hij ziet nu als voornaamste kans een Broadening Megaphone-patroon wat zou kunnen leiden tot een top in de herfst (of 21-12-12 ?).

Hij heeft in ieder geval zijn  EW-telling herzien :

Dear Subscribers,

The Latest Expanded Weekend U.S. Market Forecast & Trading Report, issue no. 1764, February 3rd, 2012, is now available at http:…..ndex.com  To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

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Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:    
    
We got a new buy signal in the 14 Day Stochastic Indicator on page 2, but that means the three component indicators for the short-term trend are in conflict, a sideways signal, which suggests either a top is coming or stocks will move sideways over the next few weeks. Friday's rally was strong, and it drove the Industrials so close to the May 2nd, 2011 top that it is time to rework the Elliott Wave mapping. On page 25 we show a massive decade long Broadening Top Megaphone in the Industrials, which we also have dubbed a Jaws of Death pattern. We name it Jaws of Death because every time it showed up on a large scale over the past century, it led to a powerful recession or depression, and stock market decline. This pattern usually sees its final leg, its (E) wave, rise to the upper boundary of the pattern. With stocks rising sharply since October 4th's lows, it would seem they are going to do that again, reach for the upper boundary of this pattern. There is no hard and fast rule that stocks have to rise that high, which would be above the October 2007 highs. The problem for investors at this point is that the Industrials can top anywhere from right here to 15,000. That means we cannot rely upon EW for an upside target. We must rely upon our page 2 Key trend-finder indicators to know when this top is in. Once all indicators on page 2 are on new sells, we would conclude Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} up has topped. Once our Primary Trend Indicator shown above turns to a sell, we will have confirmation that wave {IV} down has begun. Charles Dow did not believe in double tops, they are very rare, and a top now would be a double top with the May 2nd, 2011 highs. So that argues for more upside. There could be a short-term decline that starts over the next month or so, but that would likely be a small degree wave 4-down, with one more wave 5-up rally to follow. See chart on page 26.

What we do know from the patterns shown on pages 25 and 26 is that this decade long Megaphone Jaws of Death pattern is approaching an end. The most bullish and optimistic scenario has stocks half-way through the final wave C-up leg of the final wave (E) up leg right now. What this means is the longest we can see a stock market rally last is through around the autumn of this year, but this pattern could finish before then. By 2013, stocks will be plunging in one of the greatest and most fearful economic collapses ever. This Jaws of Death pattern is highly reliable. It is almost over. I thought it might have ended by now, with a truncated wave (E), but recent price action suggests that is not the case. So we will lean heavily upon our intermediate and medium term, and our long-term primary trend indicators to identify Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV}'s start. It could come with war, or some unbelievable natural disaster previously considered unthinkable, such as an asteroid strike, a massive sun storm, massive earthquake, or who knows what. We have some time before the coming great collapse.

It will be critical to focus on our page 2 indicators for investing and trading in 2012. EW alone is going to be a very difficult prognosticator to make trades from due to the wide range of upside target possibilities as this Jaws of Death pattern finishes. Our trading indicators should prove very worthwhile and effective.    

DJIA PPI -75.03 On a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 72.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast  80.00 Slow 62.22 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day 73.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day 86.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day 86.67
Secondary Trend Indicator + 52 On a Buy
Demand Power + 8 to 409 Supply Pressure -4 to 339 On a Buy
McClellan Oscillator +173.14
McClellan Osc Summation Index +4,769.22
Plunge Protection Team Indicator +13.19 On a Sell
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator 704.5 On a Buy
NYSE New Highs 301 New Lows 5     

Today's Technology NDX Market Comments
        
The NDX Purchasing Power, and 30 and 14 day stochastic trend trading indicator signals remains on a buy signal Friday, February 3rd. Once these three indicators move to new sell signals, the next short-term trend down is confirmed as underway. We did not conduct any new NDX market trades Friday in either the Conservative Portfolio Market Timing segment or the Platinum Speculative segment.

In the charts on pages 29 and 30, we show a revised Elliott Wave labeling that considers the recent large sideways triangle as wave 4, with the break out higher wave 5-up. This allows for the NDX to continue to stairstep higher through March/April 2012 before a powerful wave (C ) down move begins. This count adjustment is necessary now that the NDX has exceeded it July 2011 highs. The NDX could decline hard before then should wave 5-up truncate.

The age of the NDX's short-term rally trend is maturing, with some indication it is approaching old. Both the Daily Full Stochastics are near the 90 overbought level, and Weekly Full Stochastics are also around the overbought 95 level. Prices sit near the top of the Bollinger Bands Wednesday. This means the first leg of wave 5-up is finishing, with the second wave, a decline, about to begin. There is a truncation possibility that all of wave 5-up is finishing now.

Friday's NDX Demand Power rose 5 points to 420, while Selling Pressure fell 3 points to 380, telling us the advance was moderate.  

NDX PPI +29.15 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 93.00 Slow 89.60 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 88.00 Slow 78.80 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +17.4 On a Buy

RUT PPI + 65.62 On a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 506.60 On a Buy

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments
        
Wave 4-down was an {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down 3-3-5 Flat pattern, which is finished. The HUI, Gold and Silver should continue to rally from here, perhaps after a short-term corrective decline. The breakouts above what we have drawn as the upper declining boundary of the Wedges on pages 38 and 39 are impressive, and suggest wave 5-up is underway. Once a coming short-term corrective decline completes, prices should rally at least toward the start of these Wedges, 640 in the HUI and 1,900 in Gold. A rise above those levels would be very bullish, confirming wave 5-up is occurring. Wave 5's in precious metals are the most dramatic.

The trend is up, so buying declines should be a winning strategy. Downside targets for the short-term corrective decline are 1675ish in Gold and 520ish in the HUI.

The HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and 30 Day Stochastic remain on buy signals. The HUI Weekly Full Stochastics are nowhere near overbought, and are supportive of more rally.
        
HUI PPI 278.74 On a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 85.00 Slow 82.22 On a Buy

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen,

Korte McHugh:

Today's Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:    
    
This is the sort of market vacations should be scheduled around. Maybe the Facebook IPO has markets frozen. The January Jobs report comes out Friday. The price pattern this week looks like a sideways triangle for the rally from December 19th, meaning once it completes, probably by the middle of next week, another upside rally leg should follow. No change to the key trading indicators Thursday. The two week horizon remains on a sideways signal, while the medium term and intermediate term signals remain on buys.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to a sell signal, meaning the PPT is likely to relax and let markets do their thing. This signal does not mean stocks will decline, but it means that if selling pressure arrives, the PPT will sit back and save their ammunition for another time.          

Until downside momentum is strong enough to trigger new sell signals in our page 2 indicators, it is high risk to short this market.