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dow jones

2 scenario's

5 min.chart laat nog steeds de start van een neerwaartse beweging zien.belangrijk in dit scenario is dat de 10520 niet wordt uitgenomen,  anders kunnen we beter schakelen naar de 10 min.chart

10 min.chart ziet een opwaartse impuls waarvan W1 en mogelijk W2 zijn gezet ,koersdoel W3 =dj 10770+/-

Goeiemiddag,    de nieuwe McHugh-update : we zijn bezig met de laatste(?) golf 5 up ? :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Wave {iv} down has occurred over the past three days, within wave {c} up of 2-up. If this is correct, then there should be one more rally leg, wave {v} up of {c} up that occurs over the next few days. Once complete, a top should be in and stocks should fall hard for several weeks. It is possible that Thursday afternoon's rally was the first of five subwaves for {v} up. See the chart on page 12. A drop below 10,300ish in the Industrials would argue wave 3-down has started.

                 

The Industrials fell 30.72 points Thursday after an up and down roller coaster ride, closing at 10,467.16. NYSE volume rose to 102 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 55 percent, with advancing issues at 53 percent, with downside points at 63 percent in mixed trading. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 2 points to 398, while Supply Pressure was flat at 370, telling us Thursday's decline was weak after a tug-of-war battle. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above Supply Pressure Indicator Thursday, July 22nd, and remains on an "Enter Long" positions signal Thursday, July 28th. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 155, with New Low higher at 18. 

 

Stocks are operating under new Bollinger Band Sell Signals in both the Russell 2000 small cap index as well as the Transportation Average. We usually see multi-week declines start within a week or so of these signals, so the coming bounce should be brief.

        

On page 13, we show an alternate labeling should prices exceed their June highs. It would mean a short-term Flat scenario is occurring for the correction of the decline from April 2010's highs, but within a Zigzag pattern for Supercycle degree wave (C ) down, which started on April 26th, 2010. Short-term this would consider that the first wave down from the April highs, wave 1 down, completed at the May 25th lows. Since then has been a wave a-up, b-down, c-up correction, wave 2-up, which should complete by early August. Then stocks would fall sharply as wave 3 down grips markets.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average remained at 83.33 Thursday. The percent above 10 day fell to 76.67 from 86.67. The percent above 5 day fell to 40.00 from 70.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 477.2, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 9th, 2010, when it last rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) moved to a new "sideways" signal Thursday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast fell to 83.33, below the Slow at 84.00, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast fell to 63.33, decisively below the Slow at 80.56, triggering a new "sell" signal from July 28th. The Fast had to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to negative -88.89, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd.      

 

The McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 123.12 reading. The Summation Index rose to positive + 2,468.69. The 50 Day Moving Average in both the Industrials and S&P 500 continued to fall deeper below the declining 200 Day Moving Average Thursday, as the Death Cross deepens in spite of the past week's rally. Not good.

 

The Daily Full Stochastics are overbought and topping.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 12.32 points Thursday, closing at 1,860.30. The Russell 2000 2000 fell 0.33 points, closing at 650.43 Thursday. The HUI rose 1.68 points to 435.79 Thursday. September Gold rose to 1168.0; Silver rose to 17.60, while September Oil rose to 78.12. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.54 points to 81.64. Bonds rose 3 ticks to 126^28. The VIX fell 0.12 to 24.13 

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Wave {iv} down has occurred over the past three days, within wave {c} up of 2-up. If this is correct, then there should be one more rally leg, wave {v} up of {c} up that occurs over the next few days. Once complete, a top should be in and stocks should fall hard for several weeks. It is possible that Thursday afternoon's rally was the first of five subwaves for {v} up. See the chart on page 12. A drop below 10,300ish in the Industrials would argue wave 3-down has started.

                 

The Industrials fell 30.72 points Thursday after an up and down roller coaster ride, closing at 10,467.16. NYSE volume rose to 102 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 55 percent, with advancing issues at 53 percent, with downside points at 63 percent in mixed trading. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 2 points to 398, while Supply Pressure was flat at 370, telling us Thursday's decline was weak after a tug-of-war battle. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above Supply Pressure Indicator Thursday, July 22nd, and remains on an "Enter Long" positions signal Thursday, July 28th. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 155, with New Low higher at 18. 

 

Stocks are operating under new Bollinger Band Sell Signals in both the Russell 2000 small cap index as well as the Transportation Average. We usually see multi-week declines start within a week or so of these signals, so the coming bounce should be brief.

        

On page 13, we show an alternate labeling should prices exceed their June highs. It would mean a short-term Flat scenario is occurring for the correction of the decline from April 2010's highs, but within a Zigzag pattern for Supercycle degree wave (C ) down, which started on April 26th, 2010. Short-term this would consider that the first wave down from the April highs, wave 1 down, completed at the May 25th lows. Since then has been a wave a-up, b-down, c-up correction, wave 2-up, which should complete by early August. Then stocks would fall sharply as wave 3 down grips markets.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average remained at 83.33 Thursday. The percent above 10 day fell to 76.67 from 86.67. The percent above 5 day fell to 40.00 from 70.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 477.2, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 9th, 2010, when it last rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) moved to a new "sideways" signal Thursday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast fell to 83.33, below the Slow at 84.00, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast fell to 63.33, decisively below the Slow at 80.56, triggering a new "sell" signal from July 28th. The Fast had to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to negative -88.89, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd.      

 

The McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 123.12 reading. The Summation Index rose to positive + 2,468.69. The 50 Day Moving Average in both the Industrials and S&P 500 continued to fall deeper below the declining 200 Day Moving Average Thursday, as the Death Cross deepens in spite of the past week's rally. Not good.

 

The Daily Full Stochastics are overbought and topping.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 12.32 points Thursday, closing at 1,860.30. The Russell 2000 2000 fell 0.33 points, closing at 650.43 Thursday. The HUI rose 1.68 points to 435.79 Thursday. September Gold rose to 1168.0; Silver rose to 17.60, while September Oil rose to 78.12. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.54 points to 81.64. Bonds rose 3 ticks to 126^28. The VIX fell 0.12 to 24.13

sunset schreef:

ook de dow jones heeft het ABCtje afgerond

maar de indicator ziet nieuwe kansen voor UP.

 

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er is iets veranderd bij dow jones.

aex 5 min.chart

koersdoel W3 zo goed als gehaald

Goeiemiddag,  wederom op speciaal verzoek van Milanek (LOL) de nieuwe update van McHugh; hij wordt steeds bullisher :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

The stock market is dynamic, fluid, which means changes can occur to patterns. When they do, we make the adjustment. There has been a minor pattern change as a result of Wednesday's price action. The Rising Bearish Wedge pattern that was nearing completion for wave {c} up of 2-up, with a symmetrical triangle wave {d) down within that pattern, has morphed into a simple zig-zag pattern for wave {c} up of 2-up. Instead of wave {d} down occurring, we see wave {iv} down has occurred over the past two days, within a perfectly parallel and proportional rising trend-channel for wave {c} up of 2-up. If this is correct, then there should be one more rally leg, wave {v} up of {c} up that occurs over the next few days. Once complete, a top should be in and stocks should fall hard for several weeks. We chose to make a speculative play on this coming upside move by doing a Trader's Corner transaction, which we detail on page 21 herein, as well as at the Traders Corner button at http:…..rindex.com .The above labeling looks nice and clear, and we have labeled all the minute details in the chart on page 12.                  

                  

The Industrials fell 39.81 points Wednesday, closing at 10,497.88. NYSE volume fell to 89 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 74 percent, with declining issues at 67 percent, with downside points at 83 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 6 points to 400, while Supply Pressure rose 3 points to 370, telling us Wednesday's decline was moderate with a lack of buyers allowing weak supply to push prices down. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above Supply Pressure Indicator Thursday, July 22nd, and remains on an "Enter Long" positions signal Wednesday. New NYSE 52 Week Highs fell to 99, with New Lows remaining at 10. 

 

Stocks are operating under new Bollinger Band Sell Signals in both the Russell 2000 small cap index as well as the Transportation Average. We usually see multi-week declines start within a week or so of these signals, so the coming bounce should be brief.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average fell to 83.33 Wednesday from 86.67. The percent above 10 day fell to 86.67 from 90.00. The percent above 5 day fell to 70.00 from 90.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 455.1, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 9th, 2010, when it last rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Wednesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast fell to 83.33, above the Slow at 80.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast fell to 76.67, below the Slow at 77.22, but not decisively below, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 23rd. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to negative -88.15, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd.         

 

The McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 142.28 reading. The Summation Index rose to positive + 2,345.58. The 50 Day Moving Average in both the Industrials and S&P 500 continued to fall deeper below the declining 200 Day Moving Average Monday, as the Death Cross deepens in spite of the past week's rally. Not good.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 16.19 points Wednesday, closing at 1,872.62.  The Russell 2000 2000 fell 11.41 points, closing at 650.76 Wednesday. The HUI rose 1.90 points to 434.11 Wednesday. September Gold rose to 1166.6; Silver fell to 17.58, while September Oil fell to 77.05. The U.S. Dollar rose 0.04 points to 82.18. Bonds rose half a point to 126^25. The VIX rose 1.06 to 24.25.    

even een snelle update tussendoor

golf W1 en W2 geplaatst (hoogstwaarschijnlijk),koersdoel W3 net iets onder 332 .

ziet er weer mooi uit Sunset

Bericht bewerkt 14:35 – 28 juli 2010 door sunset
Bericht bewerkt 14:38 – 28 juli 2010 door sunset
Bericht bewerkt 14:39 – 28 juli 2010 door sunset

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de AEX heeft het groene eindpatroon (WA-WB-WCend) afgerond op de 5 min. chart ,

de indicator ziet tevens de start van neerwaarts gerichte telling,maar dat hadden we gisteren op de fTI ook al geconstateerd.

zodra de rode W1 gezet is komt de indicator met een koersdoel voor W3.

@ jantje 61,

D3 spotter

 

http:…..rindicator

Bericht bewerkt 16:32 – 27 juli 2010 door sunset

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de AEX future FTI: 2 scenario's ,of groene W3 of start rode 1

de 3 min chart ziet signalen dat het tijd is voor een flinke correctie maar dan mogen we niet meer boven 339 komen.

Sintmacro schreef:

sunset schreef:

AEX 30 min.chart

beste mensen,

ik post deze grafieken in de Elliotwave box ,maar dat is het natuurlijk niet he

het lijkt er misschien een beetje op ,de indicator telt W1 t/m W5 ,A<B<C end ,maar maakt geen onderscheid tussen impuls of correctieve patronen,ziet ook geen zig zags of flats ,ED's of CT's

het is eigenlijk een beetje golventelling voor dummy's ,maar daarom niet minder effectief,

 

 

 

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past hier goed hoor Sunset

 

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Doe maar door sunset mag graag zien.EW doet toch niemand meer meeste zijn er blut van…………

 

Goede morgen,    De nieuwe McHugh:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

In the weekend newsletter, we showed a short-term Rising Bearish Wedge pattern in the Industrials, which also is occurring in the S&P 500, in a 10 minute chart from July 20th. We wrote, "The final wave c-up for {e} up of {c} up of 2 up may need one more upward thrust, which if so, should be a Monday morning rally. That rally can be explosive in these patterns, so if you are Bearish, please do not have a heart attack should you wake up and markets are up another 1 percent Monday. These final waves can sometimes be "throw-overs", which are nothing more than exhaustion buying." 

 

Well, that is precisely what occurred Monday. That pattern looks complete. See tonight's chart on page 14. If this labeling is correct, prices should fall hard over the next several weeks, starting Tuesday, or Wednesday at the latest. If something else is going on, prices will continue to rise, which would mean one of the alternate labelings we showed over the weekend, and show again tonight in these pages, is occurring, such as what we show on page 15. 

 

Arguing for our top labeling, where prices are topping now and a multi-week decline is starting, we saw Monday's rally occur on sharply falling volume, which is what one would expect at the end of a Rising Bearish Wedge, evidencing a tired rally. The 200 Day Moving Average stopped the S&P 500, as did the upper boundary of a declining trend-channel from April 26th, 2010.

 

Further, both the Russell 2000 and the Trannies saw their prices rise above the upper boundary of their 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands, setting up high probability sell signals which would trigger once prices fall back inside those bands, which should occur over the next day or two.

 

The Industrials have risen 800 points since our July 1st phi mate turn date. They rose above Key resistance levels Monday, above the upper boundary of their declining trend-channel from April, and above both their 50 day and 200 day moving averages. While this is an argument for a bullish breakout here, because the S&P 500 has not confirmed, it actually could be a Bearish omen. A further non-confirmation between these two averages Monday is that the Industrials closed above their June closing highs and the S&P 500 failed to do so.

 

On the other hand, we got a Dow Theory buy signal Monday as both the Industrials and Trannies closed above their June highs after a downside non-confirmation between these two averages, where one average closed below their February lows and the other did not. This argues for the alternate intermediate-term bullish scenarios.

 

Things should clear up very soon.

 

The Industrials rose 100.81 points Monday, closing at 10,525.43. NYSE volume fell to 89 percent of its 10 day average on the rally, which could be a sign the rally is tiring. Upside volume led at 87 percent, with advancing issues at 80 percent, with upside points at 95 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 7 points to 409, while Supply Pressure fell 7 points to 365, telling us Monday's rally was moderate and solid. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above Supply Pressure Indicator Thursday, July 22nd, and remains on an "Enter Long" positions signal Monday. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 248, with New Lows falling to 12.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 86.67 Monday from 80.00. The percent above 10 day rose to 86.67 from 70.00. The percent above 5 day rose to 100.00 from 83.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 791.0, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 9th, 2010, when it last rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Monday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 86.67, above the Slow at 66.00, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 90.00, above the Slow at 75.56, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 23rd. The Fast had to rise more than 10 points above the Slow for a new "buy." The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -86.46, remaining on a "buy" signal from July 22nd.    

 

The McClellan Oscillator rose to an extreme overbought positive + 300.15 reading. Similar readings in the past have resulted in subsequent declines, with the exception of the March 2009 low. The Summation Index rose to positive + 1,969.57. The 50 Day Moving Average in both the Industrials and S&P 500 continued to fall deeper below the declining 200 Day Moving Average Monday, as the Death Cross deepens in spite of Thursday through Monday's rally. Not good.

 

Thursday was the ninth 90 percent panic buying up day since the April 26th top. Friday, July 16th, was the eleventh 90 percent panic selling down day since the April 26th top. These Bullish and Bearish panic days keep coming. There have been 60 trading days since the April 26th top, and 20 of them, precisely one-third of all trading days, have been panic buying or selling days. This is incredible This is a sign of a very unhealthy market. If we were just getting the 90 percent down days, it would mean we are approaching an important bottom. If we were just getting the 90 percent up days, it would mean a Bull Market is underway with continuous fuel. But to be getting both at the same time is a set up for a stock market crash. The downside targets noted above would clearly get us into crash territory from the April 26th highs.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 15.02 points Monday, closing at 1,890.40. The Russell 2000 2000 rose 14.57 points, closing at 665.22 Monday. The HUI fell 4.52 points to 447.33 Monday. August Gold fell to 1184.8; Silver rose to 18.18, while September Oil was flat at 78.94. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.42 points to 82.04. Bonds were flat at 127^07. The VIX fell 0.70 to 22.70.