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Nog tegoed, de McHugh-update van vanochtend:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 2 years for $479 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 25 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

 

Stocks fell hard Tuesday for the second day in a row, and are well on their way in this next declining trend that started on Thursday, October 27th, the day between Wednesday's New Moon, and Friday's Bradley model turn date. This top arrived inside our latest Fibonacci Cluster turn window and around the end of month / beginning of month turn cycle we have seen every month over the past year. Our key trend-finder indicators generated a new sell signal Tuesday, the 30 day stochastic and 14 day stochastic component indicators joining the Purchasing Power Indicator's sell signal from Monday.

 

So now that this expected turn has been confirmed, the next question is how low do stocks go? That depends upon which declining wave structure is occurring. Is this decline wave b-down of an a-up, b-down, c-up for wave 2-up? Wave 2-up is a corrective retracement of the five month decline from May 2nd through October 4th 2011. If the decline from October 27th is wave b-down, then the downside target is likely around 11,250ish in the Industrials, and around 1,180ish in the S&P 500. If wave b-down, it should bottom around November 10th +/-.   If wave b-down, then wave c-up will follow and could last into year end. This scenario is our alternate scenario.

 

Our top scenario is that wave 3-down has started on October 27th. Wave 3-down should be a six month decline to far below the October low. Far below.

 

How will we know which scenario is occurring? A decline below October 4th's bottom would confirm 3-down is underway. New sell signals in our Secondary Trend Indicator and Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator would strengthen the evidence for 3-down being underway now because we usually see significant declines after they generate sell signals, which would likely drop prices below the October 4th lows, confirming 3-down.

 

The Industrials fell 297.05 points, closing at 11,657.96 Tuesday, November 1st. The S&P 500 fell 35.02 points, closing at 1,218.28. NYSE volume rose to 121 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 94 percent, with declining issues at 85 percent, with downside points at 99 percent, the second consecutive 90 percent panic selling down day. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 11 points to 422, while Supply Pressure rose 16 points to 401, telling us the decline was powerful with deep pockets buying the market hard to prevent an all out collapse. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Tuesday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to fall more than 10 points below the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs fell to 12, with New Lows rising to 32.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of November 1st, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Oversold.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sell Signal since November 1st, 2011.  

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

McClellan Oscillator fell to negative -33.41 Tuesday. The Summation Index fell to positive + 2,739.92.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average fell to 80.00 from 97.67. The percent above 10 day fell to 16.67 from 73.33. The percent above 5 day fell to 0.00 from 36.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 161.7, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) generated a new "sell" signal Tuesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast fell to 80.00, decisively below the Slow at 94.67, triggering a new "sell" signal from November 1st. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast fell to 26.67, decisively below the Slow at 75.56, triggering a new "sell" signal from November 1st. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to negative -115.20, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 31st. 

 

On Tuesday November 1st, the Secondary Trend Indicator fell 8 points to positive + 7, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of November 1st, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sell Signal since November 1st, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 61.71 points Wednesday, closing at 2,298.37. Our NDX key trend-finder indicators moved to a new "sell" signal Tuesday. The Russell 2000 fell 27.17 points Tuesday, closing at 713.89. The HUI fell 1.71 points to 564.38 Tuesday. November Gold rose to 1727.6; Silver fell to 33.56; while December Oil fell to 91.75. The U.S. Dollar rose 1.10 to 77.26. U.S. Bonds rose two points to 141^17. The VIX rose 4.81 to 34.77.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of November 1st, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 24th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Buy Signal since October 24th, 2011.

 

Check out our November Specials, including a 10 Months for $189 deal, good through Midnight EST Sunday, November 6th, 2011, at http:…..rindex.com . If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend.

 

 

Available now, McHugh's exclusive Platinum Trading Service. We are now offering a six months term for $1,695 for our Platinum Service at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button. If you pay by check, we offer you an extra 10 percent off the Platinum subscriptions, to $1,525.00.

 

Best regards,

 

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Goede morgen, de McHugh-update:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 2 years for $479 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 25 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

 

Stocks had a monster rally day Thursday, the Industrials up 425 points at one point. Most of the buying was short-covering. Most of the buying was done by those most pessimistic about the market, panicking, buying stocks to cover open short positions where they agreed to sell stocks they do not have, so had to buy them for fear prices would go higher on the news Greece and Europe came to a deal on the value of Greece's Bonds. Most of the buying was not from investors believing in the future of stock prices, or positive prospects for the economy.

 

There are several cycle reasons stocks could top over the next few days. Friday is a Bradley model turn date, we are inside a Fibonacci Cluster turn window, and a new cycle trend is presented tonight on page 14. A significant trend turn has started near the end of month / or beginning of month every month since last November 29th, 2010. Check out the chart and data. That is not a guarantee a turn is coming over the next few days, but when considered with other cycle turn indicators due now, and what appears to be a completing Elliott Wave pattern for 2-up, and severe overbought readings in several indicators such as the McClellan Oscillator and Daily Full Stochastics, we need to be on high alert for a stock reversal soon. Such a reversal would certainly catch many people off guard.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 27th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 27th, 2011.  

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

There is an alternate possibility that merely wave a-up of 2-up is finishing this week, and next is wave b-down. But even so, whether wave b-down of 2-up or the start of 3-down, the coming decline should be at least 4 to 5 percent if b-down, but could be 30 to 40 percent if wave 3-down. Not all at once, if 3-down is about to start, but wave 3-down will be six months to a year in length and could include several mini-crashes along the way. The argument that wave a-up of 2-up is topping now, and not the final wave c-up of 2-up is based upon time proportionality. Wave 1-down lasted five months. Wave 2-up has so far only lasted three weeks, which is not proportional time-wise. However the price retracement has been significant, so that is proportional.

 

The Industrials rose 339.51 points, closing at 12,208.55 Thursday, October 27th. The S&P 500 rose 38.28 points, closing at 1,284.59. NYSE volume rose to 145 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 95 percent, with advancing issues at 87 percent, with upside points at 96 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 20 points to 445, while Supply Pressure fell 9 points to 372, telling us the advance was powerful, with most of the buying coming from shorts covering. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Thursday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to fall more than 10 points below the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 174, with New Lows falling to 7.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to 285.60 Thursday, an extreme overbought level. The Summation Index rose to positive + 2438.50.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 100.00 from 96.67. The percent above 10 day rose to 100.00 from 73.33. The percent above 5 day rose to 96.67 from 73.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 789.4, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) moved to a new "buy" signal Thursday, but this buy signal is coming from overbought conditions, so is less reliable than if prices were oversold. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 100.00, above the Slow at 92.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 100.00, decisively above the Slow at 88.33, triggering a new "buy" signal from October 27th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -95.45, triggering a new "buy" signal from October 27th, rising above negative -111.29 threshold necessary for a new buy.

 

On Thursday October 27th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 8 points to positive + 25, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 27th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 27th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 65.04 points Thursday, closing at 2,399.83. Our NDX key trend-finder indicators moved to a new "buy" signal Thursday. The Russell 2000 rose 38.28 points Thursday, closing at 765.43. The HUI rose 11.34 points to 568.21 Thursday. November Gold rose to 1750.0; Silver rose to 35.43; while December Oil rose to 93.35. The U.S. Dollar fell 1.37 to 74.88. U.S. Bonds plunged 3 points and a quarter to 134^26. The VIX fell 4.40 to 25.46.    

McHugh is short gegaan:

Stocks are up sharply mid-day Wednesday, October 26^th, working through the final stages of small degree wave 5-up to finish the rally from October 4^th, 2011. Stocks should top over the next few days, then fall hard. We show charts of the path for price in Wednesday's International Daily Report, now available at http:…..rindex.com  We conducted a trade in our Conservative Portfolio, the details of which are available at the transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio header at the left of the home page. Details also are as follows:

 

On Wednesday, October 26^th, 2011, at approximately 2:30 pm EST, we purchased 165 shares of SDOW at $30.04 per share, for a total investment of $4,956.60. SDOW is a Proshares Ultra Pro Short three times leveraged fund ETF. We are playing the Industrials to decline soon. We are buying these shares in the Market Timing segment of our Conservative Portfolio. This is not trading advice, we are merely sharing with you for educational purposes what we are doing in our portfolio, which is valued at about $650,000. This purchase is risking only 3/4ths of one percent (less than 1 percent) of our portfolio.

 

As of Mid-day Wednesday, Gold is up 14.90, Silver is up 0.06, the HUI is up 5.98, Oil is down 3.02, the U.S. Dollar is up 0.02, and U.S. Bonds are down 1 and a quarter points.

Goede morgen, de eerste update van McHugh deze week; hij voorspelt een begin van een daling deze week :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 2 years for $479 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 25 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

 

Grab our 10 Months for $189 subscription renewal special good through Midnight, Sunday October 30th. Simply click on the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com

 

While it is possible more upside could be coming in stocks over the next few days, a top of some significance should arrive sometime this week. There is a New Moon on Wednesday, and a Bradley model turn date on Friday. The Full Stochastics are overbought, very overbought, as is the McClellan Oscillator. Stocks are right in the middle of a Fibonacci Cluster turn window. The Elliott Wave mapping pattern suggests stocks are nearing the completion of the wave 2 countertrend rally correcting the decline from May 2nd through October 4th, 2011. This wave 2-top is very close to finishing. There is an alternate possibility that merely wave a-up of 2-up is finishing this week, and next is wave b-down. But even so, whether wave b-down of 2-up or the start of 3-down, the coming decline should be at least 4 to 5 percent if b-down, but could be 30 to 40 percent if wave 3-down. Not all at once, if 3-down is about to start, but wave 3-down will be six months to a year in length and could include several mini-crashes along the way. The argument that wave a-up of 2-up is topping now, and not the final wave c-up of 2-up is based upon time proportionality. Wave 1-down lasted five months. Wave 2-up has so far only lasted three weeks, which is not proportional time-wise. However the price retracement has been significant, so that is proportional. In any case, a top is very likely coming this week.

 

The best short-term guidance in this situation to be sure when the top has arrived is to follow our key trend-finder Indicators and our Secondary Trend Indicator. Confirmation the new declining trend has started would come with new sell signals.       

 

The Industrials rose 104.83 points, closing at 11,913.62 Monday, October 24th. The S&P 500 rose 15.94 points, closing at 1,254.19. NYSE volume fell to 100 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 87 percent, with advancing issues at 82 percent, with upside points at 94 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 8 points to 430, while Supply Pressure fell 8 points to 375, telling us the advance was moderate and solid. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Monday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to fall more than 10 points below the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 83, with New Lows falling to 2.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 24th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 6th, 2011.     

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to 278.89 Monday. The Summation Index rose to positive + 1811.48.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average remained at 96.67. The percent above 10 day rose to 90.00 from 86.67. The percent above 5 day fell to 90.00 from 96.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 717.4, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "sideways" signal Monday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast remained at 96.67, above the Slow at 90.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast fell to 93.33, above the Slow at 91.11, but not yet decisively above, needing to either reach 100.00 or rise 10 points above the Slow for a new buy, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 21st. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -110.31, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th, needing to fall below -116.31 for a new sell.

 

On Monday October 24th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 6 points to positive + 18, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 24th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 18th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 48.49 points Monday, closing at 2,384.42. The Russell 2000 rose 23.61 points Monday, closing at 736.03.  The HUI rose 20.44 points to 538.10 Monday. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators generated a new "buy" signal Monday.

November Gold rose to 1651.1; Silver rose to 31.63; while December Oil rose to 91.46. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.37 to 76.03. U.S. Bonds fell half a point to 137^22. The VIX fell 2.06 to 29.26.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October 24th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 24th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Buy Signal since October 24th, 2011.

Goede morgen, de McHugh-update:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 2 years for $479 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 25 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

 

Stocks continued the back and forth oscillation we have been seeing for weeks on Thursday, and our blue chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a sideways signal. Similar comments tonight. While we do not have clarification if wave b-down of 2-up finished intraday Tuesday, or a powerful wave v-down move is imminent, a new buy signal would suggest wave c-up of 2-up started early Tuesday and prices should rise into our imminent Fibonacci Cluster turn window week. A new sell signal next would suggest v-down is starting.  If v-down is starting stocks could fall below the August 9th lows. If c-up of 2-up is next it means after a week or so of rally, a monster decline will start, wave 3-down.

 

Our focus needs to be on a powerful Fibonacci Cluster turn window starting tomorrow, October 20th, and lasting into month end. There should be a strong stock market move that starts sometime within this window. There is a Bradley model turn date on October 28th and a New Moon on October 26th, within this same Fibonacci Cluster window. If prices rise sharply over the next few days, it means this coming turn will be a significant top. There is an outside chance this top would be the top of wave iv. It could also be the top of wave 2, or the top of wave a-up of a larger expanded 2-up. 

 

The Industrials rose 37.16 points, closing at 11,541.78 Thursday, October 20th. The S&P 500 rose 5.51 points, closing at 1,215.39. NYSE volume fell to 100 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 66 percent, with advancing issues at 60 percent, with upside points at 73 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power was flat at 420, while Supply Pressure fell 5 points to 393, telling us the advance was mild and due to falling supply. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Wednesday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to fall more than 10 points below the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs fell to 10, with New Lows up at 26.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 20th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 6th, 2011.     

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

McClellan Oscillator had a small change, rising 15.36 to positive + 119.44 Thursday, suggesting a large price move is possible over the coming few days. The Summation Index rose to positive + 1215.39.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 86.67 from 83.33. The percent above 10 day fell to 73.33 from 83.33. The percent above 5 day rose to 56.67 from 43.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 417.1, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "sideways" signal Thursday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 86.67, above the Slow at 83.33, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast remained at 90.00, below the Slow at 92.78, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 17th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -121.48, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th, needing to fall below -124.76 for a new sell.

 

On Thursday October 20th, the Secondary Trend Indicator fell 2 points to positive + 4, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 20th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 18th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 10.52 points Thursday, closing at 2,306.29. The Russell 2000 rose + 2.05 points Thursday, closing at 696.42.  The HUI fell 4.33 points to 508.85 Thursday. November Gold fell to 1622.0; Silver fell to 30.56; while November Oil fell to 85.30. The U.S. Dollar was flat at 77.11. U.S. Bonds were flat at 139^00. The VIX rose 0.34 to 34.78.  

Sorry, deze hadden jullie nog tegoed:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 2 years for $479 special gives you the opportunity to save an additional 25 percent and pay only $355 if you mail a check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 Please include your email address.

 

For 3 Days Only, McHugh's $20 Bucks Per Month, You Pick Your Term Subscription Special ends Midnight EST Thursday, October 30^th. Simply go to http:…..rindex.com  and click on the Subscribe Today button.

 

Stocks rose sharply Tuesday, and our blue chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a sideways signals from buy signals. While we do not have clarification if wave b-down of 2-up finished intraday Tuesday, or a powerful wave v-down move is imminent, a new buy signal would suggest wave c-up of 2-up started early Tuesday and prices should rise into our imminent Fibonacci Cluster turn window week. A new sell signal next would suggest v-down is starting.  If v-down is starting stocks could fall below the August 9th lows. If c-up of 2-up is next it means after a week or so of rally, a monster decline will start, wave 3-down.

 

Our focus needs to be on a powerful Fibonacci Cluster turn window starting this Thursday and lasting into month end. There should be a strong stock market move that starts sometime within this window. There is a Bradley model turn date on October 28th and a New Moon on October 26th, within this same Fibonacci Cluster window. If prices rise sharply over the next few days, it means this coming turn will be a significant top. There is an outside chance this top would be the top of wave iv. It could also be the top of wave 2, or the top of wave a-up of a larger expanded 2-up. 

 

The Industrials fell 100 points early Tuesday, then bounced 280 points from the intraday lows, closing up 180.05 points at 11,577.05 Tuesday, October 18th. The S&P 500 rose 24.52 points, closing at 1,225.38. NYSE volume rose to 114 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 93 percent, with advancing issues at 84 percent, with upside points at 92 percent, a 90 percent up day. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 11 points to 428, while Supply Pressure fell 9 points to 391, telling us the advance was strong and solid. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Tuesday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to fall more than 10 points below the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 31, with New Lows up slightly to 20.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 18th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 6th, 2011.     

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 203.12 Tuesday. The Summation Index rose to positive + 1096.13.

                  

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 90.00 from 73.33. The percent above 10 day rose to 96.67 from 76.67. The percent above 5 day rose to 90.00 from 16.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 847.6, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "sideways" signal Tuesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 90.00, above the Slow at 84.00, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 96.67, above the Slow at 95.56, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 17th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -118.76, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th, needing to fall below -124.76 for a new sell.

 

On Tuesday October 18th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 8 points to positive + 10, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 12th, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for a new sell.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 18th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 18th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 30.49 points Tuesday, closing at 2,364.87. The Russell 2000 rose 20.74 points Tuesday, closing at 709.34. The HUI rose 2.99 points to 544.50 Tuesday. November Gold fell to 1659.0; Silver was flat at 31.81; while November Oil rose to 88.23. The U.S. Dollar was flat at 77.14. U.S. Bonds fell 5 ticks to 139^06. The VIX fell 1.83 to 31.56.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October 18th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.

De weekend-update van McHugh: volgende phi mate turn date : 11-11-11. Fibonacci Cluster Turn Window 20 tot 31-10-2011, met de grootste waarschijnlijkheid 20-10-11.  Bradley model turn date 28-10-11, Nieuwe maan : 26-10-11. Conclusie : draai voor eind van de maand, d.w.z. als de koersen blijven stijgen (nu golf 2-up) > top eind van de maand(start golf 3-down), als de koersen nu gaan zakken (start golf v-down van 1-down) dan bodem eind deze maand (start golf 2-up) :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

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Tonight I would like to point you to a study we do from time to time, our Fibonacci Cluster Turn Window study which appears on pages 7 and 8. This is within the arm of the body of technical analysis known as cycle analysis. Cycle analysis takes many forms, but essentially uses time rhythms to identify possible meaningful turn points in the market. There are variant inputs used in different studies to identify possible turn dates. For example, Bradley model turn dates are determined based upon the positioning of the planets and stars. Cycle Seasonal turns can based upon calendar dates such as the spring and autumn equinoxes. There are common arithmetic periodic cycles where the same number of calendar or trading days repeat over several months or years, where every nth day produces a turn. We have a couple of cycle turn date studies that are proprietary creations of our own that have had a remarkable track record for the past decade. One is the phi mate turn date identification of coming turns in stocks. The next one is due November 11th, 2011 (11/11/11 interestingly). But the other one we do that we want to bring to your attention this weekend is the Fibonacci Cluster turn window.

 

This is a study that identifies typically a 3 to 10 day period of time when there is a high probability of a significant stock market trend turn. These clusters are determined by typically finding 4 to 6 prior market tops or bottoms that are a Fibonacci number of days from a cluster of 3 to 10 days coming in the near future. We have found a coming Fibonacci Turn date cluster that is fascinating because there are nine prior tops or bottoms that are a Fibonacci number of trading days from the eight trading day period from October 20th (this Thursday) to October 31st. To find as many as 9 former tops or bottoms converging upon an 8 trading day period is very unusual. Nine is a lot. Then when we add the fact that 5 of these nine are a precise Fibonacci number of Trading Days from a single day, not the range of days mentioned above, but a single day, this Thursday, October 20th, we have a very strong cluster here suggesting there is a very high probability of a market turn of significance coming the end of this month.         

We do not trade off cycle turn date analysis, but what it does is put us on high alert that a turn is coming, and should we get a signal change in our key trend-finder indicators around theses cycle turn dates, well, it adds confidence to take a new position in the direction of the new signal. In addition to a Fibonacci Cluster turn window due over the next two weeks, we see there is a Bradley model turn date on October 28th and a New Moon on October 26th, within this same Fibonacci Cluster window. These independent cycle studies coming at the same time suggests a strong turn is likely the end of this month. So, the direction of prices going into this turn should reverse at this turn. If prices continue to rally over the next week, it would suggest a strong decline will start at this turn. If prices start falling hard now, it would mean the turn would represent a bottom that leads to a sharp rally.

                                             

The two scenarios we have outlined in Wednesday's report remain possible. Either wave v-down of 1-down finished the decline from May 2nd, 2011 on October 4th, 2011, or wave iv up of 1-down is finishing now and v-down is about to start. If the rally from October 4th is the start of wave 2-up and not wave c-up of iv up as outlined in Wednesday's newsletter and shown in charts this weekend, it is the fastest corrective rally I've seen in years, correcting 50 percent of the past five months' decline in just 9 trading days. It also means that if 2-up is moving this fast, wave 3-down is coming long before year end. Wave 3-down should be dangerous.

 

Our key trend-finder indicators remain on a buy signal Friday. In spite of the indicators, I continue to lean toward believing the past 9 days' rally is wave c-up of iv up, but I could be wrong and am not interested in ignoring the indicators. This is a flat pattern for iv, and wave c up of a flat is known to typically be fast and furious. So the price pattern fits the wave iv scenario far better than the wave 2 scenario. In either case, a sell-off is due to start soon, shallow if wave b-down of 2-down (maybe 2 to 3 percent), and strong if wave v-down (10 percent +/-). If iv up is finishing, it would be odd for our Secondary Trend Indicator to be generating a buy here, so as you can see, we have a less than ideal situation in the markets at this time for short-term predictability. As long as the S&P 500 remains below 1,258, this wave v-down scenario remains possible.

 

The Daily Full Stochastics are overbought, which is a set-up condition for sharp declines, so if we get new sell signals soon, that would support the wave v-down scenario.

 

The Industrials rose 166.36 points closing at 11,644.49 Friday, October 14th. The S&P 500 rose 20.92 points, closing at 1,224.58. NYSE volume fell to 75 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 88 percent, with advancing issues at 83 percent, with upside points at 97 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 9 points to 426, while Supply Pressure fell 10 points to 390, telling us the advance was strong and solid. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Friday. The Demand Power Indicator needed to rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 22, with New Lows up slightly to 11.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 244.90 Friday. The Summation Index rose to positive + 777.36.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 86.67 from 83.33. The percent above 10 day remained at 100.00. The percent above 5 day rose to 86.67 from 83.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 693.8, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Friday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 86.67, above the Slow at 80.00, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast remained at 100.00, above the Slow at 92.78, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -121.35, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 14th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.    

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 14th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 45.06 points Friday, closing at 2,371.94. The Russell 2000 rose 13.64 points Friday, closing at 698.82. The HUI rose 16.61 points to 555.95 Friday. November Gold rose to 1681.5; Silver rose to 32.17; while November Oil rose to 87.28. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.37to 76.62. U.S. Bonds fell a point to 137^30. The VIX fell 2.46 to 28.24.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October 14th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.

De ochtend-update van McHugh : grote twijfels, of golf a-up van 2-up vanaf 4-10 of nog steeds bezig met c-up van iv-up van 1-down ; we krijgen dan als volgende golf of b-down (2 a 3%) of v-down (ca 10%) :

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

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We got a new buy signal Wednesday, October 12th in our Secondary Trend Indicator, which supports the scenario that wave 2-up started at the October 4th lows. We also got a new buy signal in our Industrials/S&P 500 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, also supporting that view. Our key trend-finder indicators remain on a buy signal Wednesday. If wave 2-up is in fact underway, next is a wave b-down decline, retracing a portion of the rally from the past week, which would be wave a-up of 2-up. Hard to argue with these indicators, however if this is wave 2-up and not wave c-up of iv up as outlined in Tuesday's newsletter, it is the fastest corrective rally I've seen in years, correcting 50 percent of the past five months' decline in just 6 trading days. It also means that if 2-up is moving this fast, wave 3-down is coming before year end. Wave 3-down should be dangerous.

 

In spite of the indicators, I lean toward believing the past 6 days' rally is wave c-up of iv up, but I could be wrong and am not interested in ignoring the indicators. This is a flat pattern for iv, and wave c up of a flat is known to be fast and furious. So the price pattern fits the wave iv scenario far better than the wave 2 scenario. In either case, a sell-off is due to start over the next few days, shallow if wave b-down of 2-down (maybe 2 to 3 percent), and strong if wave v-down (10 percent +/-). If iv up is finishing, it would be odd for our Secondary Trend Indicator to be generating a buy here, so as you can see, we have a less than ideal situation in the markets at this time for short-term predictability.         As long as the S&P 500 remains below 1,258, this wave v-down scenario remains possible.

 

If the wave v-down scenario is correct, the time it took for waves i-down from May 2nd, 2011 plus wave ii up to take will be the same time as waves iv up plus v-down take should wave v-down end around October 28th at the Bradley model turn date, making time proportionality pretty good.

 

The Daily Full Stochastics are overbought, which is a set-up condition for sharp declines, so if we get new sell signals soon, that would support the wave v-down scenario.

 

The Industrials rose 102.55 points closing at 11,518.85 Wednesday, October 12th. The S&P 500 rose 11.71 points, closing at 1,207.25. NYSE volume rose to 97 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 84 percent, with advancing issues at 80 percent, with upside points at 84 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 6 points to 422, while Supply Pressure fell 9 points to 401, telling us the rally was strong. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Wednesday, October 12th, triggering an "Enter Long" positions signal, and remains there Wednesday. The Demand Power Indicator needed to rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs remained at 17, with New Lows falling to 6.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 229.94 Wednesday. The Summation Index rose to positive + 366.94. Small changes in the M.O. often mean a large price move is coming over the next few days. Tuesday's small change led to a sharp rally Wednesday, the Industrials up over 200 points at one point.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 12th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.    

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 12th, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 86.67 from 70.00. The percent above 10 day remained at 100.00. The percent above 5 day remained at 100.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 510.7, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Wednesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 86.67, above the Slow at 62.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 100.00, above the Slow at 76.11, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -125.07, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Wednesday October 12th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 6 points to positive + 10, triggering a new "buy" signal from October 12th, rising above the positive + 5 threshold for a new buy.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 12th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 12.26 points Wednesday, closing at 2,307.18. The Russell 2000 rose 11.41 points Wednesday, closing at 700.38. The HUI rose 5.00 points to 549.40 Wednesday. November Gold rose to 1683.7; Silver rose to 32.77; while November Oil fell to 84.82. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.59 to 76.99. U.S. Bonds fell a point to 138^04. The VIX fell 1.60 to 31.26.    

McHugh van vanochtend:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

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Stocks were flat Tuesday. I may be completely wrong here, but there is a solid possibility that another downleg is coming starting this week and lasting into the end of October before a multi-week rally begins. The Elliott Wave labeling allows very nicely for a 3-3-5 Flat pattern to be completing now from the August 9^th crash low. The rally the past week would be the final five wave c-up pattern for this wave iv upward Flat correcting the crash. As long as the S&P 500 remains below 1,258, this pattern is valid. Why do we remain cautious here? A bunch of reasons. The above mentioned EW count works. In fact the speed of the rally the past five days is too fast relative to the speed of the decline from May 2^nd, but is not too fast relative to the speed (time) of the crash in August. This argues the rally is correcting the crash, not the entire decline from May. We have a Bradley model turn date due tomorrow, October 12th, and another one due October 28th. That would support iv topping now and v-down finishing in two weeks. There is a powerful Fibonacci Cluster coming the end of this month, which we will show this weekend, suggesting the turn at end of month would be a larger degree trend than we have seen in a while, which would support large degree wave 1-down bottoming in two weeks and 2-up starting then, correcting the past five months decline.

 

The decline from September 1^st 2011 was too overlapping for an ideal wave v-down, especially as the top and bottom boundary lines for that decline did not converge, as would be the case for a Declining Bullish terminating trend Wedge pattern. It looks more like a "b" wave, b-down of iv up, with the rally from October 4^th the c-up final wave for iv. The key indicators did a good job catching this rally from October 4^th, so without a new sell from them, we would not be confident v-down has started. If the sell signal does not come, and 1,258 is exceeded in the S&P 500, then we have full confirmation that wave 2-up did in fact start on October 4^th in spite of the bizarre price pattern and wave relationships. If we get a new sell signal over the next few days, we would be on high alert for a sharp wave v decline. The McClellan Oscillator had a very small change Tuesday, suggesting a large price move is likely over the next few days.

 

The Industrials fell 16.88 points closing at 11,416.30 Tuesday, October 11th. The S&P 500 rose 0.65 points, closing at 1,195.54. NYSE volume rose to 80 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 57 percent, with advancing issues at 55 percent, with upside points at 52 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 1 point to 416, while Supply Pressure fell 3 points to 410, telling us neither side had a strong conviction about the coming trend. The Demand Power Indicator intersected the Supply Pressure Indicator Monday, October 10th, triggering an "Exit Short" positions signal, and remains there Monday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs fell to 17, with New Lows falling to 9.

 

McClellan Oscillator had a very small change, falling 1.15 to positive + 156.11 Tuesday. The Summation Index rose to positive + 136.30. Small changes in the M.O. often mean a large price move is coming over the next few days.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 11th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.    

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Neutral Signal since October 10th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 1st, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average fell to 70.00 from 73.33. The percent above 10 day remained at 100.00. The percent above 5 day remained at 100.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 120.70, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Tuesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast fell to 70.00, above the Slow at 51.33, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 96.67, above the Slow at 62.22, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -128.11, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Tuesday October 11th, the Secondary Trend Indicator was flat at positive + 4, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 1st, needing to rise above positive + 5 for a new buy.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 11th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 16.27 points Tuesday, closing at 2,294.92. The Russell 2000 rose 4.07 points Tuesday, closing at 688.97. The HUI rose 0.46 points to 544.40 Tuesday. November Gold fell to 1666.0; Silver rose to 32.00; while November Oil fell to 84.94. The U.S. Dollar rose 0.09 to 77.58. U.S. Bonds rose a point to 139^15. The VIX fell 0.16 to 32.86.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October 11th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.

McHugh-update:

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 24 months for $439 (or get a 20 percent further discount, only $355 if paying by check) subscription renewal special is good through Sunday October 16th. We also offer a great 13 months for $239 offering, at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com  Checks can be mailed to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA 19442 – Please include your email address).

 

If wave 2-up has started on October 4th, the speed of the rise is far too fast to be proportional with wave 1-down. In other words, if wave 1-down finished on October 4th after starting on May 2nd, that means wave 1-down lasted about 5 months. Wave 2-up should correct about 40 to 80 percent of the wave 1-down decline, and if the time is proportional, the rally should last from 6 weeks to 3 months. Well, the rally from October 4th has only been 4 trading days and has already retraced 42 percent of this 5 month decline. Since the bulk of the decline was the wave iii down summer crash, it makes some sense that the sideways oscillating move from August 9th has been wave iv up, and that the rally the past 4 trading days has been a large chunk of the final wave for iv up. If this scenario is occurring, the pattern for wave iv is a 3-3-5 flat pattern, and the overlapping wave decline from September 1st through October 4th was merely the middle wave b down of an a-up, b-down c-up for iv up. This would mean the rally from October 4th is the impulsive five wave c-up leg, and not one half of wave 2-up, which it would have to be. Four days is far too fast for wave a-up of 2-up.

 

My point is, it makes little sense that 2-up has started. Wave v-down was too choppy for an impulsive wave, which wave fives typically are. It does not even sport the typical look for a Declining Bullish Wedge for wave v, as the upper and lower boundary lines are more parallel than converging. I bring this up to be careful here. If this is merely the end of wave iv up, then a very strong decline could come over the next two weeks, for v-down. We have a Bradley model turn date due this Wednesday (possible top for wave c-up of iv up?) and another Bradley model turn date coming in two weeks on October 28th (possibly the bottom for wave v of 1?). Plus, there is a strong Fibonacci Cluster turn window due from October 20th through October 28th, suggesting a strong turn the last week of October. Could that coming turn be the end of 1-down and start of 2-up? Our key trend-finder indicators will guide us through this coming two week period.          

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 10th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.    

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Neutral Signal since October 10th, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 1st, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The Industrials rose 330.06 points closing at 11,433.18 Monday, October 10th. The S&P 500 rose 39.43 points, closing at 1,194.89. NYSE volume fell to 78 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 96 percent, with advancing issues at 91 percent, with upside points at 99 percent, a 90 percent panic buying up day. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 16 points to 417, while Supply Pressure fell 11 points to 413, telling us the decline was powerful with a third of the buying coming from shorts covering. The Demand Power Indicator intersected the Supply Pressure Indicator Monday, October 10th, triggering an "Exit Short" positions signal, and remains there Monday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 23, with New Lows falling to 10.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to positive + 157.26 Monday. The Summation Index rose to negative – 19.81.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 73.33 from 43.33. The percent above 10 day rose to 100.00 from 66.67. The percent above 5 day rose to 100.00 from 96.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 281.2, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Monday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 73.33, above the Slow at 41.33, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 93.33, above the Slow at 46.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -128.21, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Monday October 10th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 6 points to positive + 4, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 1st, needing to rise above positive + 5 for a new buy.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 10th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Buy Signal since October 10th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 75.89 points Monday, closing at 2,278.65. The Russell 2000 rose 28.69 points Monday, closing at 684.90. The HUI rose 18.27 points to 543.94 Monday. November Gold rose to 1675.6; Silver rose to 31.96; while November Oil rose to 85.59. The U.S. Dollar fell sharply, down 1.23 to 77.49. U.S. Bonds fell two and a half points to 138^08. The VIX fell 3.18 to 33.02.    

Goede morgen, McHugh heeft er lang over gedaan om deze weekend-update te schrijven, mijn conclusie : hij weet het even niet meer :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 10 months for $189 subscription renewal special is good through Sunday October 9th. We also offer a great 13 months for $239 offering, at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com

 

Stocks remain at a point of determination. They have risen precisely to key resistance, the top boundary of a declining trend-channel from September 1st, but have not broke decisively higher. This trend-channel is important as it has several touches for both boundary lines and has marked all trend turns over the past five weeks, all the oscillating waves. The number of overlapping waves since the August 9th bottom is remarkable. Bears and Bulls are both unsure of the next impulsive trend. Should prices rise sharply above this upper boundary of this declining trend-channel over the next day or two, then we would conclude Minor degree wave 1-down is over, wave v-down of that wave was relatively weak and finished, and wave 2-up has started. Wave 2-up should be a multi-month rally that lasts into year end and retraces 60 to 75 percent of the decline from May 1st. However, should wave v-down need another leg, and we show this possibility in charts this weekend, wave e-down, then prices should decline sharply starting early this week and take prices down 6 to 10 percent from current levels before creating a bottom for wave 1. With the U.S. Labor Report for August being released in the morning, that could be the catalyst to send stocks on their next impulsive wave, up or down.

 

Our key trend-finder indicators generated a new buy signal Thursday, however the Secondary Trend Indicator remains on a sell signal.

        

This weekend's report covers the performance results for the first 9 months of 2011 for our Conservative Portfolio model. It also covers Friday's Employment figures, and presents the latest results for our long-term Primary Trend Indicator as well as up-to-date results for our indicators, and updated Elliot Wave labeling for the charts.

 

There is a Bradley Model turn date this Wednesday, October 12th, and another one on October 28th.              

 

The Industrials fell 20.21 points closing at 11,103.12 Friday, October 7th. The S&P 500 had a worse day than the Industrials, falling 9.51 points, closing at 1,155.46. NYSE volume fell to 95 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 80 percent, with declining issues at 71 percent, with downside points at 85 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 7 points to 401, while Supply Pressure rose 4 points to 424, telling us the decline was moderate with the lack of buyers allowing mild supply to push prices lower. The Supply Pressure Indicator rose decisively above the Demand Power Indicator Wednesday, September 21st, triggering a new "Enter Short" positions signal, and remains there Friday. The Demand Power Indicator needs to rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 9, with New Lows falling to 32.

 

McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 29.39 Friday. The Summation Index rose to negative – 177.07.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 7th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.    

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 21st, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 1st, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 43.33 from 40.00. The percent above 10 day fell to 66.67 from 76.67. The percent above 5 day rose to 96.67 from 90.00. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell to positive + 168.2, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th, 2011, when it rose above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "buy" signal Friday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 43.33, above the Slow at 26.67, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 6th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 66.67, above the Slow at 35.56, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to negative -137.53, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Friday October 7th, the Secondary Trend Indicator fell 5 points to negative -2, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 1st, needing to rise above positive + 5 for a new buy.

 

The following is an update of our Conservative Balanced Portfolio for the first 9 months of 2011, which updates the total market value as of September 30th, 2011. You can compare this with our initial start-up portfolio by pulling down the Guest Article on our Initial Portfolio dated October 11^th, 2006. A list of transactions and a portfolio inventory is available at the Conservative Portfolio Model button and the Conservative Portfolio Transactions button at http:…..rindex.com .

 

This portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 12.73 percent for the first 9 months of 2011 and has outperformed the S&P 500 by 54 percent over the past five years. If you have friends who are looking for a Conservative Portfolio model that can help them outperform stocks, tell them about this benefit we provide as a side feature to our market forecasting and analysis service. All regular subscriptions provide a minimum of 4 to 5 trades at the Transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio header at http:…..rindex.com .

 

We have target allocations in Gold, Treasury Notes in a laddered maturity structure, Precious Metals and Mining Stocks ETF's in a Buy and Hold Equity portfolio, a Market Timing segment of the portfolio which includes a diversification of short-fund ETF's, metals, and Mining Stocks, a Speculative Segment which is our Platinum Trading program, which is kept under 5 percent of the portfolio, and Cash. We keep cash only at FDIC insured financial institutions, and in moneymarket accounts that provide reasonable interest rates for safety, yield, and a place to park funds until put to use. Again, this is a conservative portfolio. A more aggressive or balanced portfolio may have held stocks long, and may have outperformed in some areas, while underperforming in others. But that is not what this portfolio is all about. This portfolio is for those who do not like risk, but need returns greater than FDIC insured deposit accounts provide.

 

In an environment where Treasury Bills remain near a yield of zero percent and FDIC insured moneymarket cash remains low at 1.00 percent, for the nine months ending September 30th, 2011, our conservative portfolio model generated a 2.70 percent return above the market value of the portfolio at the end of 2010, which annualizes to 3.60 percent, which is almost four times greater than the yield on FDIC insured Moneymarket Deposit accounts and seven times greater than short-term Treasury Securities. On a mark to market basis, for the first nine months of 2011, our portfolio increased $17,133.79 above the portfolio's market value at the end of last year, 12/31/2010, a 3.60 annualized percent increase. The S&P 500 remains deep underwater from October 1^st, 2006, whereas our portfolio is 53.74 percent higher than had we invested our funds in the S&P 500 over that same period of time, from 10/1/2006 through 9/30/2011. In other words, over the past five years, our conservative portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 54 percent, preserved capital, and fully protected our life's savings during several crash periods of time when many folks have gotten wiped out. Put another way, our conservative portfolio has 54 percent more value at September 30th, 2011 than had it been placed and kept in the S&P 500 over the past five years.

 

The whole point of a conservative portfolio is to avoid catastrophic times in the markets, and continuously enjoy high, yet safe returns in good times. Let's put this in a different perspective: If someone invested $500,000 five years ago, in October 2006, and invested the money similarly to our conservative portfolio model, even after a cataclysmic market collapse in 2008 and mini-crashes in 2010 and 2011, five years later they would have a portfolio with a market value as of September 30th, 2011 of $651,059.89, up $151,059.89, for a 30.2 percent gain over a five year period. If we had invested that $500,000 in the S&P 500 on October 1st, 2006, it would be worth only $423,483.17, $227,576.77 less than our portfolio has.

 

With our Conservative Portfolio, there were no Madoff funds, no high risk stuff, no wipeout of life savings. Basic high quality securities and returns.

 

In 2011, our asset allocations have been approximately 11 percent U.S. Treasuries, 41 percent in Gold, Silver, and Gold Stocks, 6 percent in Major Stock Index ETFs (leveraged short funds), with the remaining 42 percent in FDIC insured Cash. Our 3.60 percent annualized return for the first nine months of 2011 was substantially above the 1.00 percent average yield in FDIC insured cash account opportunities, and substantially above the 0.25 percent return on 3 year Treasuries, and zero return on short-term Treasuries. We improved upon this yield while still maintaining substantial balances in cash by conducting occasional market timing trades, and by enjoying the benefit of significant gains in the value of our Treasury and precious metals investments. This portfolio passed the sleep-well-at-night test, during turbulent times, for example, when the major stock indices crashed in the summer of 2011, during the Flash crash of 2010, and during the crashes of 2007 into early 2009 during times when confidence was weak, unemployment skyrocketed, housing crashed, and Europe's sovereign debt crisis. 

 

The Platinum Program generated $10,425 for the speculative segment of this portfolio for the first 9 Months of 2011, which was 5.2 times greater than the subscription cost of the program, and generated an average return on investment on the average invested funds of 505 percent for the first 9 Months of 2011. 17 out of 23 trades (74 percent) were winners.

 

Next, let's take a look at the September 2011 Employment Report, released by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, October 7th:

 

As of September 30th, 2011, the U.S. Unemployment Rate, as calculated by the BLS, remained at 9.1 percent, or 14.0 million folks. 6.2 million have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. But here is an alarming figure: The number of persons who are working part-term but wanted full-time work rose to 9.3 million. Then in addition to this, there were another 2.5 million folks who were unemployed, but not counted as unemployed by the BLS because these folks had not searched for a job in the past 12 months, many of them so discouraged as to not bother to look anymore. That means there were 25.8 million people, or 16.7 percent of the population, or one out of every 6 people, who were underemployed at September 30th.

          

The BLS reported that the economy created 103,000 new jobs during the month of September. If we add back the 43,000 jobs that the BLS estimated we lost during September by businesses they assume closed during September, it means the economy generated 146,000 new jobs in 2011. 19,400 of these new jobs were temporary. This is about what was needed to meet populaton growth for one month, so was insufficient to reduce underemployment. In other words, all the tinkering the Central Planners have been doing has failed to improve the Jobs picture.      

        

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 7th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Indecisive.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Buy Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Neutral Signal since September 28th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 fell 15.23 points Friday, closing at 2,202.76. The Russell 2000 fell 17.59 points Friday, closing at 656.21. The Russell 2000 fell 17.59 points Friday, closing at 656.21. November Gold fell to 1640.3; Silver fell to 31.24; while November Oil rose to 82.87. The U.S. Dollar rose 0.09 to 78.73. U.S. Bonds fell 1 point to 140^28. The VIX fell 0.07 to 36.20.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October 7th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Buy Signal since October 6th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.

Goede morgen, de update van vanochtend : 1165 kantelpunt :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 10 months for $189 subscription renewal special is good through Sunday October 9th. We also offer a great 13 months for $239 offering, at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com

 

Stocks rose sharply Wednesday, October 5^th.  Tonight we show an Elliott Wave labeling that makes sense out of all the overlapping waves during the decline from September 1^st. Wave iv may have been a truncated Flat 3-3-5 pattern, topping September 1^st, which means wave v-down is forming a Declining Bullish Wedge, the rally the past two days being wave d-up. Next would be wave e-down which could be a plunge. We show these patterns on pages 12 and 13. We will depend upon our key trend-finder and Secondary Trend Indicators for guidance that wave v-down has bottomed, or wave e-down of v-down has started. Tonight they remain on a sideways signal.

 

Once v-down finishes, a multi-month rally should unfold. Wave v-down should bottom this month, by mid to late October, 2011. The alternate possibility is wave v-down bottomed yesterday, Tuesday, October 4th, however for that to be the case we need to see prices break out decisively above the upper boundary of the declining trend-channel from September 1^st, 2011, above 11,250 in the Industrials and above 1,165 in the S&P 500 for confirmation.

 

The Industrials rose 131.24 points closing at 10,939.95 Wednesday, October 5th. The S&P 500 rose 20.09 points, closing at 1,144.04. NYSE volume fell to 99 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 84 percent, with advancing issues at 73 percent, with upside points at 93 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 8 points to 395, while Supply Pressure fell 8 points to 428, telling us the advance was strong and solid. The Supply Pressure Indicator rose decisively above the Demand Power Indicator Wednesday, September 21st, triggering a new "Enter Short" positions signal, and remains there Wednesday. The Supply Pressure Indicator needed to rise more than 10 points above the Demand Power Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 12, with New Lows falling to 57.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to negative – 12.21 Wednesday. The Summation Index fell to negative – 309.21.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 5th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 4th, 2011.     

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 21st, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 1st, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 30.00 from 20.00. The percent above 10 day rose to 46.67 from 20.00. The percent above 5 day rose to 60.00 from 23.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to negative -76.7, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 12th, 2011, needing to rise above the positive + 120.00 threshold necessary for a new "buy." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a "sideways" signal Wednesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 30.00, above the Slow at 26.00, but not decisively above, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 30th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 36.67, decisively above the Slow at 26.11, triggering a new "buy" signal from October 5th. The Fast had to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -141.20, remaining on a "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Wednesday October 5th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 6 points to negative -3, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 1st, needing to rise above positive + 5 for a new buy.

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 5th, 2011:

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Overbought.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 28th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 53.56 points Wednesday, closing at 2,182.77. The Russell 2000 rose 9.47 points Wednesday, closing at 658.11. The HUI rose 22.35 points to 525.27 Wednesday. November Gold rose to 1640.8; Silver rose to 30.33; while November Oil rose to 79.60. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.68 to 78.92. U.S. Bonds fell 2 points to 143^07. The VIX fell 3.01 to 37.81

De McHugh-update van vanochtend :

 

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

 

Our 10 months for $189 subscription renewal special is good through Sunday October 9th. We also offer a great 13 months for $239 offering, at the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button at http:…..rindex.com

 

So far the declining trend-channel from September 1st, 2011 has stopped rallies and declines, and the bottom boundary stopped Tuesday's decline cold. Stocks fell sharply to this bottom boundary line, then rallied hard Tuesday into the close, the Industrials rising nearly 400 points in the last hour of trading. Honestly, Elliott Wave labeling is no help tonight. There is no way to know if the bottom of wave v-down of 1-down occurred Tuesday or not based upon EW. We will depend upon our key trend-finder and Secondary Trend Indicators for that guidance and tonight they are not on a new buy signal. The key trend-finder indicator did move to a sideways signal Tuesday as the Purchasing Power Indicator moved to a new buy, however the 30 and 14 day stochastics did not confirm.      

 

For those of you who track the Trin, it came in Tuesday at a very low 0.21. The last time it was this low was 11/13/2008. The S&P 500 fell 160 points over the next 5 trading days after that. There have been time low Trins have come near bottoms, so do not put too much stock in today's reading. New Lows were a very high 1,203 on the NYSE Tuesday, close to the number we saw at the August 10th, 2011 low. So this New Lows figure conflicts with the Trin.

 

Here are the Performance results for our Platinum Trading Program for the first 9 Months of 2011:

 

There were 23 closed trades during the first 9 Months of 2011. Seventeen (74 percent) were winners and 6 were losers. The net gains accumulated are $10,515, which is 5.2 times greater than the cost of a membership to the Platinum service. The average dollars at risk per trade came to $2,083. The Return on Investment on this average trade was 505%. In other words, the average investment of $2,083 grew to $12,588 in nine months. Details for all closed trades in 2011 are available for review at the Platinum Archives button at the upper left of the home page at http:…..rindex.com

 

The Industrials fell sharply, losing 251 points intraday Tuesday, October 4th, then bounced 404 points into the close, closing up 153.41 points at 10,808.71. The S&P 500 rose 24.72 points, closing at 1,123.95. NYSE volume rose to 132 percent of its 10 day average. Upside volume led at 85 percent, with advancing issues at 85 percent, with upside points at 95 percent. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 9 points to 387, while Supply Pressure fell 11 points to 436, telling us the advance was strong and solid. The Supply Pressure Indicator rose decisively above the Demand Power Indicator Wednesday, September 21st, triggering a new "Enter Short" positions signal, and remains there Tuesday. The Supply Pressure Indicator needed to rise more than 10 points above the Demand Power Indicator for a new sell signal. New NYSE 52 Week Highs fell to 11, with New Lows rising to 1,203.

 

McClellan Oscillator rose to negative – 104.85 Tuesday. The Summation Index fell to negative – 296.99.

 

Current Stock Market Trends As of October 4th, 2011

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Oversold.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our Dow Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since October 4th, 2011.     

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 21st, 2011.

 

Intermediate-term Trend (Over the next Three to Six Months): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Secondary Trend Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 1st, 2011.

 

Long-term Trend (Over the Next Year): Our Industrials/S&P 500/NYSE Primary Trend Indicator is on a Buy Signal since May 2010.

 

Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis is important, and the longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

 

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 20.00 from 10.00. The percent above 10 day rose to 20.00 from 6.67. The percent above 5 day rose to 23.33 from 3.33. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to negative -430.1, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 12th, 2011 when it fell below the negative -120.00 threshold necessary for a new "sell." Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) triggered a new "sideways" signal Tuesday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 20.00, below the Slow at 24.67, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 30th. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast rose to 16.67, below the Slow at 29.44, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 3rd. The Fast had to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new "sell." Sideways signals occur when one of the three indicators, the PPI, the 30 Day Stochastic, or the 14 Day Stochastic are in conflict with the other two, and warn either a trend turn is coming or a sideways move is underway. The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -146.07, triggering a new "buy" signal from October 4th.

 

On Tuesday October 4th, the Secondary Trend Indicator rose 6 points to negative -9, remaining on a "sell" signal from September 1st, needing to rise above positive + 5 for a new buy. After this indicator generated a sell signal on July 28th, 2011, the Industrials fell 1,636 points, or 13.4 percent.

 

Current NDX Stock Market Trends As of October 4th, 2011

 

Day Trend (Over the next 1 to 2 Days): The 15, 30 and 60 Minute Full Stochastics are Oversold.

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two Weeks): Our NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and related 30 Day and 14 Day Stochastics (Our key trend-finder Indicators) are on a Sideways Signal since September 30th, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Month): Our NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator is on a Sell Signal since September 28th.

 

The NASDAQ 100 rose 44.17 points Tuesday, closing at 2,129.21. The Russell 2000 rose 39.15 points Tuesday, closing at 648.64. The HUI fell 17.01 points to 502.92 Tuesday. November Gold fell to 1623.0; Silver fell to 29.84; while November Oil rose to 77.62. The U.S. Dollar rose 0.17 to 79.60. U.S. Bonds was flat at 145^01. The VIX fell 4.63 to 40.82.    

 

Current HUI / GOLD Stock Market Trends As of October4th, 2011:

 

Short-term Trend (Over the next Two to Four Weeks): Our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.

                                                                

Medium-term Trend (Over the next Two to Six Weeks): Our HUI  30 Day Stochastic is on Sell Signal since September 22nd, 2011.